The Grammys have a lot of opportunities to get it right this year, and we think in many categories, they’re going to. Here are Country Universe’s predictions and personal picks for the general, country, and country-adjacent categories, courtesy of CU veteran editor Jonathan Keefe.
General Field
Record of the Year
The Beatles, “Now and Then”
Beyoncé, “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Charli XCX, “360”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone, “Fortnight”
NARAS has expanded its voter rolls enough in recent years that the Beatles track isn’t the surefire winner it would have been up through the late aughts. Still, Bonnie Raitt’s recent Song Of The Year triumph has me on edge here. I’m hoping the fact that Raitt’s “Just Like That” was actually a lovely song– whereas this Beatles single sounds like the gussied-up demo that it is– gives enough of The Olds reason to look elsewhere.
I wouldn’t be at all mad at a win for “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM,” a great single that would have Rhiannon Giddens’ banjo on a Record Of The Year winner. But I think the women split votes here in a way that benefits Lamar. He’d actually be my preferred winner here, too, for the way he essentially rebooted the diss track as a cultural moment and elevated the form to high art.
Should Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Will Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Album of the Year
Andre 3000, New Blue Sun
Beyoncé, COWBOY CARTER
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet
Charli XCX, BRAT
Jacob Collier, Djesse Vol. 4
Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan, Chappell Roan The Rise & Fall of a Midwest Princess
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department
Andre 3000’s expectation-proof flute album, Collier’s this-is-not-for-me whoozywhatsit, and Swift’s weakest set since Speak Now are the only nominees who would be a truly surprising winner. BRAT ran the table among critics’ year-end lists, though Carpenter and Roan also have very loud fanbases, too. I would say that those three Main Pop Girls all split votes in a way that makes this a competition between proven General Field powerhouse Eilish and “A-O-T-Y I ain’t win” Beyoncé, a Grammy magnet in all of the below-the-line categories.
Eilish is probably the safer pick: I’ve been burned picking Bey to win this category since I was doing Grammy picks for Slant a lifetime ago. But, no matter how people might want to look at her Billboard metrics to advance a contrarian counter-narrative, Beyoncé’s album was a cultural watershed in a way that Eilish’s simply was not. While 2024 certainly taught us that a whole lot of people will have an obstinate, you-can’t-tell-me-what-to-do response to the idea of voting for a black woman to win something, I do think, perhaps naively so, that the cross-genre appeal of COWBOY CARTER will be enough to give it the edge.
Should Win: Beyoncé, COWBOY CARTER
Will Win: Beyoncé, COWBOY CARTER
Song of the Year
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” Shaboozey
“Birds of a Feather,” Billie Eilish
“Die with a Smile,” Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars
“Fortnight,” Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone
“Good Luck, Babe!” Chappell Roan
“Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar
“Please, Please, Please,” Sabrina Carpenter
“TEXAS HOLD ‘EM,” Beyoncé
Had that Beatles track been nominated in this category instead of Record of the Year, I’d have said it probably had an easier path to victory. The ferocity of “Not Like Us” would make for a worthy winner, but I’d also vote for Beyoncé here. In terms of composition, none of the other nominees come close to the vocal harmonies– three and four lines deep, performed mostly by Beyoncé herself– on “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM.”
I don’t know of any human who actually gives half a damn about it– even many of the Little Monsters seem to think it’s beneath her– but my gut is that “Die with a Smile” is just too banal not to win here. It sounds vaguely retro without having any definitive points of reference; it sounds like something that would’ve won this category four decades ago that everyone would have rolled their eyes at immediately thereafter. Unless voters are truly hellbent on giving Eilish another General Field win, I think this non-event from Gaga and Mars takes it.
Should Win: “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM,” Beyoncé
Will Win: “Die with a Smile,” Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars
Best New Artist
Benson Boone
Sabrina Carpenter
Doechii
Khruangbin
RAYE
Chappell Roan
Shaboozey
Teddy Swims
My “no guts, no glory” prediction is that Teddy Swims, whose popularity I find baffling and whose actual music I have no use for whatsoever, pulls off a shocking upset here. I just have a hard time seeing a plurality of NARAS’ conservative older voters rallying around the spectacularly outré Roan or the sexually frank (and hilarious) Carpenter. And we know from his recent CMA appearance that Swims probably has more white people in the country voting bloc who will vote for him before they’d vote for Shaboozey.
As much as I’d like to see Shaboozey win something on the day– and as much as I do like Roan, Carpenter, and RAYE– I am fully on board with Doechii as a generational talent with the potential to push hip-hop for years to come. She’d get my vote without hesitation.
Should Win: Doechii
Will Win: Teddy Swims
Producer of the Year, Non-Classical
Alissia
Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II
Ian Fitchuk
Mustard
Daniel Nigro
Looking at the work cited on their respective nominations, “D’Mile” has the widest range of cross-genre collaborators, which could be indicative of whose votes may fall where. That he’s the producer of “Die with a Smile” will likely draw voters who reflexively go for everything with Bruno Mars’ name attached. Nigro would be my pick for his work with Chappell Roan and, especially, Olivia Rodrigo, by just a hair over Mustard, who produced “Not Like Us” with its killer Monk Higgins sample.
Should Win: Daniel Nigro
Will Win: Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II
Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical
Jessi Alexander
Amy Allen
Edgar Barrera
Jessie Jo Dillon
RAYE
Stands to reason that this will serve as a consolation prize for the gifted RAYE, who likely has just an outside shot at Best New Artist. She’d be a fine winner, too, but I’d be inclined to recognize Allen for her work on the perfectly-composed songs on Sabrina Carpenter’s album. I wish I could support Alexander, but she’s cited for some pedestrian work on behalf of Jelly Roll and Megan Moroney. I do think it’s at least a little bit funny that two of Moroney’s hired-gun song doctors got nominated while voters were otherwise, rightly, unimpressed by her.
Should Win: Amy Allen
Will Win: Jessie Jo Dillon
Country & American Roots Music Field
Best Country Solo Performance
Beyoncé, “16 CARRIAGES”
Jelly Roll, “I Am Not Okay”
Kacey Musgraves, “The Architect”
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Chris Stapleton, “It Takes a Woman”
Honestly, the only winner I’d take issue with would be Jelly Roll, and even in his case, I wouldn’t necessarily be shocked were it to happen. “16 CARRIAGES” is a dramatic performance, but I think Beyoncé is more likely to win other performance categories. This seems likely to come down to Shaboozey and Kacey Musgraves. That “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” was truly the biggest record of the year will, I think, give it the edge in this category, and it will make for a fully deserving winner. Musgraves would be a fine winner, too, for the best song from Deeper Well.
Should Win: Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Will Win: Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Best Country Duo / Group Performance
Kelsea Ballerini feat. Noah Kahan, “Cowboys Cry Too”
Beyoncé feat. Miley Cyrus, “II Most Wanted”
Brothers Osborne, “Break Mine”
Dan+Shay, “Bigger Houses”
Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”
Even as the biggest hit in the category, I don’t think Grammy voters are going to pull the trigger for Wallen, even in the current MAGA-ascending climate. So where do the votes go, instead? Had “II Most Wanted” gotten an actual push to country radio, I could see it as having a strong chance here. But it’s up against previous winners, BrOs and Dan + Shay, in a category that has been slow to turn over. While the Ballerini & Kahan collab would be the most inspired choice, I think voters will go with the resurgent Dan + Shay, whose song was peaking commercially during the voting period.
Should Win: Kelsea Ballerini feat. Noah Kahan, “Cowboys Cry Too”
Will Win: Dan+Shay, “Bigger Houses”
Best Country Song
“The Architect,” Kacey Musgraves
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” Shaboozey
“I Am Not Okay,” Jelly Roll
“I Had Some Help,” Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen
“TEXAS HOLD ‘EM,” Beyoncé
Again, the sophistication of “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” as a composition puts the other nominees to shame, and I love how Beyoncé brought this type of harmony work– very specifically rooted in the music of black churches– into the country space. As much as I’ll go to the wall for “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” as a single and a performance, I don’t think it’s a particularly great song, but this is a category that does have a history of simply going to the biggest hit; that could play in his favor or, if voters feel obligated to throw a bone to Posty and to Wallen, to that of “I Had Some Help.” But I think this is the category where voters are most likely to award Musgraves, and her just-lovely musing on “intelligent design” showcases just how good she is when she leans into simplicity in her writing.
Should Win: “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM,” Beyoncé
Will Win: “The Architect,” Kacey Musgraves
Best Country Album
Beyoncé, COWBOY CARTER
Post Malone, F-1 Trillion
Kacey Musgraves, Deeper Well
Chris Stapleton, Higher
Lainey Wilson, Whirlwind
The Wilson nomination is just lazy; the album itself isn’t nearly as good as Bell Bottom Country, and I heard literally 200 country albums last year that were far superior. Perhaps controversially, I’ll argue that Higher is easily Stapleton’s best album since Traveller, and it’s the strongest album of these five. He’s always a legit threat to win for his albums. Of note, Stapleton has previously lost this category to Musgraves. And, as GOOP-y as Deeper Well is, its nominations in some of the “tech” categories for production and engineering show that it has a pretty– wait for it– deep well of support among voters.
Had that support translated into an AotY nomination for Musgraves, I’d be more confident in predicting a win for her here. As is, I’m not sure if the country voting bloc will rally around her, especially when it’s clear that the country industry has been eager to rally around Posty. Worse albums than F-1 Trillion have won this award– ayo, two-time Best Country Album winner, Lady [Redacted]!– but it’s the weakest of the five nominees by several orders of magnitude. There’s also the question of whether enough voters listened when Beyoncé said that COWBOY CARTER isn’t a country album and whether they’re inclined to take that statement as a directive.
I’m inclined to say yes, making this a rare instance when an AotY winner doesn’t win its genre category.
Should Win: Chris Stapleton, Higher
Will Win: Kacey Musgraves, Deeper Well
Best American Roots Performance
Shemekia Copeland, “Blame it On Eve”
The Fabulous Thunderbirds feat. Bonnie Raitt, Keb’ Mo, Taj Mahal, & Mick Fleetwood, “Nothing In Rambling”
Sierra Ferrell, “Lighthouse”
Rhiannon Giddens, “The Ballad of Sally Anne”
The weakest nominee here is sure to win based upon the murderer’s row of veteran artists credited. Just by a hair over the other two spectacular nominees, I’d vote for Copeland’s powerhouse performance.
Should Win: Shemekia Copeland, “Blame it On Eve”
Will Win: The Fabulous Thunderbirds feat. Bonnie Raitt, Keb’ Mo, Taj Mahal, & Mick Fleetwood, “Nothing In Rambling”
Best Americana Performance
Beyoncé, “YA YA”
Madison Cunningham, “Subtitles”
Madi Diaz feat. Kacey Musgraves, “Don’t Do Me Good”
Sierra Ferrell, “American Dreaming”
Sarah Jarosz, “Runaway Train”
Gillian Welch & David Rawlings, “Empty Trainload of Sky”
Even those who don’t particularly like COWBOY CARTER have cited “YA YA” as the album’s obvious standout track, and it was correctly placed here as a performance of “Americana” in the truest sense of the term. Hell, I’d argue that it’s the best example of “Americana” that’s ever been nominated at the Grammys, for how it truly synthesizes so many foundational elements of American popular culture into a single track. This is actually the award I’m most confident Beyoncé will win.
The Welch & Rawlings track– or Ferrell or Jarosz, honestly– would be worthy winners in a field without “YA YA,” and they will split votes among those who take a more narrow, “Americana-as-a-genre” approach to the category. As will Cunningham, whose appeal to Grammy voters remains utterly lost on me.
Should Win: Beyoncé, “YA YA”
Will Win: Beyoncé, “YA YA”
Best American Roots Song
“Ahead of the Game,” Mark Knopfler
“All in Good Time,” Iron & Wine feat. Fiona Apple
“All My Friends,” Aofie O’Donovan
“American Dreaming,” Sierra Ferrell
“Blame it on Eve,” Shemekia Copeland
I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a more striking example of the Grammy ballot’s alphabetical bias than this. All five of these songs are good-to-great, but did voters even bother to scan the whole ballot? The American Roots field has tended to skew toward veteran artists, so I’m guessing Ferrell is still too “new” for Grammy voters; some were even expecting her to show up in Best New Artist, and that didn’t materialize. On that assumption, I’m going with Copeland as the most likely winner, and for a deserving song. O’Donovan has my favorite song of this bunch, though.
Should Win: “All My Friends,” Aofie O’Donovan
Will Win: “Blame it on Eve,” Shemekia Copeland
Best Americana Album
T Bone Burnett, The Other Side
Charley Crockett, $10 Cowboy
Sierra Ferrell, Trail of Flowers
Sarah Jarosz, Polaroid Lovers
Maggie Rose, No One Gets Out Alive
Waxahatchee, Tigers Blood
A tremendous line-up. With the exception of the banal record by Burnett, I rated all of these albums as **** efforts or better upon review last year. Waxahatchee’s album is my pick for the best of this lot. I’d pick that one to win had she gotten any other nominations; “Right Back to It” was just too far down in the alphabet to score a Best American Roots Song nod.
Instead, I’ll give the edge to proven Grammy commodity Jarosz here, though I do think Ferrell could win. Burnett would be worst-case scenario, but he is a highly respected veteran artist, so it would be disappointing but not surprising were he to pull this off. The nomination that I’m happiest about is actually Rose’s. It’s always great to see someone get some surprise recognition for what’s their career-best work.
Should Win: Waxahatchee, Tigers Blood
Will Win: Sarah Jarosz, Polaroid Lovers
Best Bluegrass Album
Bronwyn Keith-Hynes, I Built a World
The Del McCoury Band, Songs of Love & Life
Sister Sadie, No Fear
Billy Strings, Live, Vol. 1
Tony Trischka, Earl Jam
Dan Tyminski, Live From the Ryman
Another very strong line-up here. Trischka had my pick for the year’s very best Bluegrass album, and I do think savvy voters could be swayed by his album’s concept and roster of A-list collaborators. Strings, of course, is a threat, as is Del. The poor engineering of Tyminski’s set will hopefully not be lost on voters, but his name recognition could be a factor toward a win. But we know Grammy voters love Molly Tuttle, and I’m thinking Bronwyn Keith-Hynes’ status as one of Tuttle’s bandmembers is likely to give her an edge. Her album wasn’t great, but she’s certainly a major talent on the rise.
Should Win: Tony Trischka, Earl Jam
Will Win: Bronwyn Keith-Hynes, I Built a World
Best Traditional Blues Album
Cedric Burnside, Hill Country Love
The Fabulous Thunderbirds, Struck Down
Sue Foley, One Guitar Woman
Little Feat, Sam’s Place
The Taj Mahal Sextet, Swingin’ Live at the Church in Tulsa
That they scored a performance category nomination should translate to a win for The Fabulous Thunderbirds here, though I wonder if I’m underestimating the pull of Little Feat’s name recognition. Burnside is my pick of the albums I’ve heard in this category: He truly gets traditional blues conventions in a way that honors the genre.
Should Win: Cedric Burnside, Hill Country Love
Will Win: The Fabulous Thunderbirds, Struck Down
Best Contemporary Blues Album
Joe Bonamassa, Blues Deluxe Vol. 2
Shemekia Copeland, Blame it on Eve
Steve Cropper & The Midnight Hour, Friendlytown
Ruthie Foster, Mileage
Antonio Veraga, The Fury
Clearly, the voters responded in a big way to Copeland’s tremendous album this year. It would be stunning if this went to anyone else. I will say that I enjoyed Foster’s Mileage just as much as Copeland’s set, though. Bonamassa has a very loud fanbase among gearhead Guitar Guys, but there aren’t enough of them to pull off a win here. I really only find him useful when he’s playing behind Beth Hart.
Should Win: Shemekia Copeland, Blame it on Eve
Will Win: Shemekia Copeland, Blame it on Eve
Best Folk Album
American Patchwork Quartet, American Patchwork Quartet
Madi Diaz, Weird Faith
Adrianne Lenker, Bright Future
Aofie O’Donovan, All My Friends
Gillian Welch & David Rawlings, Woodland
Thrilled to see O’Donovan’s lovely album make the cut. Lenker’s album was one of the year’s most widely-praised, and it showed up on a slew of year-end lists. Lenker’s craft is impressive, but I’ll admit that her singing style is not for me in a way I find difficult to move past. Still, a win for Bright Future wouldn’t be a total shock. But the most likely outcome is that Welch & Rawlings will take this for the extraordinary Woodlands, an album that leans into their long-time partnership in ways that highlight what they each bring to their singular vision.
Should Win: Gillian Welch & David Rawlings, Woodland
Will Win: Gillian Welch & David Rawlings, Woodland
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