2023 CMA Awards: Predictions and Personal Picks

Here are our predictions and personal picks for the 2023 CMA Awards, which will air live at 8 PM EST/7 PM Central on ABC and stream next day on Hulu.

Entertainer of the Year

Should Win:

Luke Combs – JK

Chris Stapleton – KJC

Carrie Underwood

Morgan Wallen

Lainey Wilson

 

Will Win:

Luke Combs – JK

Chris Stapleton – KJC

Carrie Underwood

Morgan Wallen

Lainey Wilson

Jonathan: I’m torn on whether or not the CMAs will follow the ACMs’ lead and give this award to Stapleton as a now-or-never recognition. He’s had the kind of “visible to the general public” year that some fanbases don’t consider relevant when predicting this specific award, but I think he’s the second-most likely to take this home based upon things like singing “The Star Spangled Banner” at the Super Bowl. But I have a hunch that Combs has just been too prominent– without the baggage of the most prominent of these five nominees– for a plurality of voters. As ever, it remains absurd that Underwood didn’t win this during her prime eras, but it’s hard to fathom a path to victory for her this year.

Kevin:  As much as I was rooting for Kane Brown at the ACMs this spring, I was still wonderfully surprised and happy when Chris Stapleton took home his first Entertainer of the Year trophy.  He’s become one of the most popular draws on the road, and he has so much industry respect that I’d give him the edge this year.  

Combs is the only nominee who has won this before, and I think he’s also in contention, as is Morgan Wallen on the strength of his touring, radio, and streaming numbers, though his relatively weak showing on the ballot suggests support might not be there for him among the traditionally controversy-averse CMA voting bloc.

 

Male Vocalist of the Year

Should Win:

Luke Combs – KJC, JK

Jelly Roll

Cody Johnson

Chris Stapleton

Morgan Wallen

Will Win:

Luke Combs

Jelly Roll

Cody Johnson

Chris Stapleton – KJC

Morgan Wallen – JK

Jonathan: I appreciate Kevin’s optimism about Wallen’s chances across the full ballot, and I wish I shared that optimism. He’s too big a name not to win something, and it feels like this is the place for voters to recognize his stature, as though his popularity alone isn’t its own reward. That he’ll win an award with “vocalist” in its name when he’s the worst actual vocalist nominated in a field that includes Jelly Roll is, in fact, a perfect reflection of the current state of the genre’s leading men. Combs would get my vote, if only because I haven’t been keen on Stapleton’s new music from this eligibility period.

Kevin: Nobody made more interesting choices this year than Luke Combs, but voters keep coming back to Stapleton in this race.  I expect him to match Miranda Lambert’s seven Female Vocalist wins this year.  Wallen is the epitome of an “ACM but not CMA” Male Vocalist of the Year, with the spring show being more generous to flashy entertainers than the CMA has historically been. (See also: Jason Aldean, Garth Brooks, Kenny Chesney, Larry Gatlin, Mickey Gilley, Freddie Hart, and Thomas Rhett.)

Female Vocalist of the Year

Should Win:

Kelsea Ballerini

Miranda Lambert

Ashley McBryde – KJC, JK

Carly Pearce

Lainey Wilson

Will Win:

Kelsea Ballerini

Miranda Lambert

Ashley McBryde

Carly Pearce

Lainey Wilson – KJC, JK

 

Jonathan: Lambert’s ridiculous nomination aside, I’d be inclined to make at least a passive argument for each of the other four women here. McBryde would be my easy choice for releasing one of the finest albums in each of the last two years, in addition to her increasing visibility as one of the genre’s go-to standard-bearers. And I appreciate that Ballerini is here on the strength of her best single to date (“If You Go Down,” obvs) and a wonderfully mopey divorce album. But Wilson’s win is a foregone conclusion as the genre’s current One Woman Allowed, and good for her for making the most of her ubiquity.

Kevin: Lainey Wilson is a lock, but Ashley McBryde deserves to win for the Lindeville project and “Light On in the Kitchen.”  Very happy to see Ballerini back in the race on the strength of her best music to date. 

Vocal Group of the Year

Should Win:

Lady A

Little Big Town

Midland – JK

Old Dominion

Zac Brown Band – KJC

Will Win:

Lady A

Little Big Town

Midland

Old Dominion – KJC, JK

Zac Brown Band

Jonathan: Midland’s duet with Jon Pardi, which bricked at radio, is the one piece of music released collectively by these five nominees during the eligibility period that I have enjoyed in any sense. I’d swap the entire list with Chapel Hart, The Chicks, Mike & The Moonpies, Turnpike Troubadours, and Flatland Cavalry and just be done with this charade. This is just grim.

Kevin: Old Dominion will win easily, but Zac Brown Band have reached Sawyer Brown levels of ridiculousness at this point.  Either stop nominating them altogether or give them the damn trophy one time. 

 

Vocal Duo of the Year

Should Win:

Brooks & Dunn

Brothers Osborne

Dan + Shay

Maddie & Tae

The War and Treaty – KJC, JK

Will Win:

Brooks & Dunn

Brothers Osborne – KJC, JK

Dan + Shay

Maddie & Tae

The War and Treaty

 Jonathan: Both Brothers Osborne and The War & Treaty have new albums that I liked but wish I liked a whole lot better. That BrOs have a kind-of hit single out should give them the edge, but I do think two of the finest singers in the genre right now have a shot here. Everyone else is a seat-filler this year, though it remains a shame Maddie & Tae never snagged one of these.

Kevin: Voters will reflexively choose Brothers Osborne again, which is fine.  The War and Treaty made the best music, though, and Maddie & Tae deserve some consideration for their cumulative efforts over the last decade. 

 

New Artist of the Year

Should Win:

Zach Bryan – KJC, JK

Jelly Roll

Parker McCollum

Megan Moroney

Hailey Whitters 

Will Win:

Zach Bryan

Jelly Roll – KJC

Parker McCollum – JK

Megan Moroney

Hailey Whitters 

 

Jonathan: Toss-up between McCollum and Moroney as the pick who best upholds the country music industry’s historic and present biases; and, in that sense, it’s probably safer to bet on the dude. No way in hell the voters will embrace Bryan’s Gen-Z popularity, since doing so would cut off their nose to spite their face. Instead, they’ll sign a slew of knock-off acts to try to replicate his success and then wonder why none of them ever stick. And I don’t see the more conservative voters going for Jelly Roll here, given his outside-the-genre origin story; his haul of nominations is as much as they’ll give him. Whitters is probably the most talented act nominated, but she hasn’t had the same amount of money thrown at her success as Moroney, so it’s hard to see her winning. McCollum is the most conservative pick in every sense, so I’ll give him the slightest of edges.

Kevin: Jelly Roll is a housetrained outlaw, so he’ll get the industry pat on the back.  Zach Bryan’s ability to launch a career without Music Row is the reason that he should win as well as the reason that he won’t. 

 

Album of the Year

Should Win:

Kelsea Ballerini, Rolling Up the Welcome Mat

Luke Combs, Gettin’ Old

Ashley McBryde, Ashley McBryde Presents: Lindeville – KJC, JK

Morgan Wallen, One Thing at a Time

Lainey Wilson, Bell Bottom Country

Will Win:

Kelsea Ballerini, Rolling Up the Welcome Mat

Luke Combs, Gettin’ Old

Ashley McBryde, Ashley McBryde Presents: Lindeville

Morgan Wallen, One Thing at a Time

Lainey Wilson, Bell Bottom Country – KJC, JK

 

Jonathan: I worry that a vote-split among the critical darlings could result in a plurality for Wallen’s bloated mess of committee-written stupor. If every credited songwriter on the album votes for it, that might be enough. Optimistically, I’ll hope that Wilson’s multiple nominations translate into enough broad support that she still is able to repeat her ACM win. McBryde’s landmark set would get my vote, easily.

Kevin: Lindeville would be the most deserving win, as it really is an album and not just a collection of tracks.  Lainey Wilson’s the one to beat, though, and I expect her to repeat her ACM victory at the CMA Awards.  

Which means that yes, I’m predicting that Morgan Wallen goes 0 for 3 on CMA night, which will probably get him more press in the end anyway. 

 

Single of the Year

Should Win:

“Fast Car” – Luke Combs – KJC, JK

“Heart Like a Truck” – Lainey Wilson

“Need a Favor” – Jelly Roll

“Next Thing You Know” – Jordan Davis

“wait in the truck” – HARDY featuring Lainey Wilson

Will Win:

“Fast Car” – Luke Combs

“Heart Like a Truck” – Lainey Wilson

“Need a Favor” – Jelly Roll  – KJC, JK

“Next Thing You Know” – Jordan Davis

“wait in the truck” – HARDY featuring Lainey Wilson

Jonathan: The CMAs aren’t afraid to give this award to acts who, otherwise, are never actually in the awards mix. Enter Davis and his eyebrows, benefitting from a vote-split between Wilson’s entries and from being a more conventional choice than either Combs’ thinkpiece-driving cover or Jelly Roll’s take on religion that isn’t super aligned with the genre’s most conservative visions of faith.

Kevin: I can see any of these five winning and I wouldn’t complain about any of them. I think that “Fast Car” reimagined as a country hit is the most interesting record of the year and it would get my vote. I think the Wilson entries cancel each other out, and that Davis has a better shot in the Song category.  Jelly Roll is my best guess, but I don’t have much confidence in it. 

 

Song of the Year

Should Win:

“Fast Car” – Tracy Chapman – KJC, JK

“Heart Like a Truck” – Trannie Anderson, Dallas Wilson, and Lainey Wilson

“Next Thing You Know” – Jordan Davis, Greylan James, Chase McGill, and Josh Osborne

“Tennessee Orange” – David Fanning, Paul Jenkins, Megan Moroney, and Ben Williams

“wait in the truck” – Renee Blair, HARDY, Hunter Phelps, and Jordan Schmidt

Will Win:

“Fast Car” – Tracy Chapman – JK

“Heart Like a Truck” – Trannie Anderson, Dallas Wilson, and Lainey Wilson

“Next Thing You Know” – Jordan Davis, Greylan James, Chase McGill, and Josh Osborne – KJC

“Tennessee Orange” – David Fanning, Paul Jenkins, Megan Moroney, and Ben Williams 

“wait in the truck” – Renee Blair, HARDY, Hunter Phelps, and Jordan Schmidt

Jonathan: I don’t know. It feels like they’re likely to take a chance to make a, “See? We aren’t racist or homophobic after all!” point and give this to Chapman for what is literally one of the finest songs in the popular music canon.

If not, I sincerely worry they’ll give it to the literal antithesis of Tracy Chapman, and award Moroney here to try to get some return on the sizeable investment Music Row has made in her.

Kevin: I love, love, love the idea of Tracy Chapman winning this award, for what is one of the best songs ever written, to boot.  I’m giving “Next Thing You Know” the edge because the CMA loves to honor songs like that in this category. I’d pick “wait in the truck” if Lainey Wilson was a co-writer. I just don’t think it gets enough votes without her on the ballot. 

 

Music Video of the Year

Should Win:

“Light On in the Kitchen” – Ashley McBryde; Director: Reid Long

“Memory Lane” – Old Dominion; Directors: Mason Allen and Nicki Fletcher – KJC, JK

“Need a Favor” – Jelly Roll; Director: Patrick Tohill

“Next Thing You Know” – Jordan Davis; Director: Running Bear

“‘wait in the truck” – HARDY featuring Lainey Wilson; Director: Justin Clough

Will Win:

“Light On in the Kitchen” – Ashley McBryde; Director: Reid Long

“Memory Lane” – Old Dominion; Directors: Mason Allen and Nicki Fletcher

“Need a Favor” – Jelly Roll; Director: Patrick Tohill

“Next Thing You Know” – Jordan Davis; Director: Running Bear

“‘wait in the truck” – HARDY featuring Lainey Wilson; Director: Justin Clough – KJC, JK

Jonathan: Kudos to Allen and Fletcher for taking another nothingburger of an Old Dominion song and turning it into one of country’s more distinctive music videos in ages. But, as Kevin points out, there’s no body count.

Kevin: The “Memory Lane” clip is so visually interesting, and demonstrates more technique than any of the other clips. But “wait in the truck” kills off an abusive partner, which is catnip for voters in this category.  (“The Thunder Rolls,” “Independence Day,” “Goodbye Earl”)

 

Musical Event of the Year

Should Win:

“Save Me” – Jelly Roll with Lainey Wilson

“She Had Me at Heads Carolina (Remix)” – Cole Swindell and Jo Dee Messina

“Thank God” – Kane Brown with Katelyn Brown – KJC, JK

“wait in the truck” – HARDY featuring Lainey Wilson 

“We Don’t Fight Anymore” – Carly Pearce featuring Chris Stapleton

Will Win:

“Save Me” – Jelly Roll with Lainey Wilson

“She Had Me at Heads Carolina (Remix)” – Cole Swindell and Jo Dee Messina – KJC

“Thank God” – Kane Brown with Katelyn Brown

“wait in the truck” – HARDY featuring Lainey Wilson – JK

“We Don’t Fight Anymore” – Carly Pearce featuring Chris Stapleton

 

Jonathan: Swindell’s only good single is probably the best of the nominees, but the remix with Jo Dee Messina doesn’t really play like an “event” in terms of being a true collaboration. So I’ll go with Kane and Katelyn Brown as my “should” win pick as the best of the lot that actually functions as a duet. But the CMAs’ aversion to Brown is sure to continue, likely to the benefit of the still-preposterous-but-in-interesting-ways “wait in the truck.” 

Kevin: I’m surprised that “She Had Me at Heads Carolina” only secured one nomination. I’m predicting its win because this category has historically rewarded younger acts pairing up with veterans.  I would “Thank God” myself if they leaned into their history of rewarding husband-and-wife pairings instead. 

 

Musician of the Year

Should Win:

Jenee Fleenor (Fiddle)

Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – KJC, JK

Rob McNelley  (Guitar)

Derek Wells (Guitar)

Charlie Worsham (Guitar)

Will Win:

Jenee Fleenor (Fiddle)

Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar)

Rob McNelley  (Guitar)

Derek Wells (Guitar)

Charlie Worsham (Guitar) – KJC, JK

 

Jonathan: Fleenor could repeat– and her fiddle work continues to elevate a whole bunch of mainstream records, so I’m not mad at that– but I think the “artist” block of voters are likely to rally around Worsham, who is incredibly well-liked and respected among his peers, many of whom probably know he deserves to be a star of their own stature. I’m still horrified by the Patty Loveless desecration on his recent EP, but I’m otherwise a big, big fan of his and love the idea of his being a CMA winner…

… Just not before Paul Franklin finally wins this.

Kevin: Thirty years from now, when we’re all living underwater, I will still be begging the CMA to finally give this to Paul Franklin.  This is his 31st nomination since 1989!