2023 Academy of Country Music Awards: Predictions and Personal Picks

Here are predictions and personal picks for this year’s ACM Awards from Kevin Coyne and Jonathan Keefe.

Surprising absolutely no one who has been paying any attention to Country Universe, we’re rooting hard for Kane Brown, Ashley McBryde, and the War and Treaty.

 

Entertainer of the Year

Will Win:

• Jason Aldean
• Kane Brown
• Luke Combs – KJC
• Miranda Lambert
• Chris Stapleton
• Carrie Underwood
• Morgan Wallen – JK

Should Win:

• Jason Aldean
• Kane Brown – KJC, JK
• Luke Combs
• Miranda Lambert
• Chris Stapleton
• Carrie Underwood
• Morgan Wallen

KJC:  As the list of Entertainer of the Year nominees gets longer, the list of said nominees who haven’t publicly embarrassed themselves gets shorter.

It should be a given that an Entertainer of the Year winner represents the genre with dignity and has proven themselves capable in the studio and on stage.  

The ACM Awards have given this trophy to six different artists in the last five years, thanks to a tie three ceremonies ago.  Of this year’s nominees who have yet to win, the most likely winner is reigning CMA champ Luke Combs, with fellow potential first timers Chris Stapleton and Kane Brown also in contention.

Right now, the artist firing on all cylinders artistically is Kane Brown, and he’s doing so while also selling out arenas and topping the radio chart with all four singles so far from his career best album, Different Man. That he might be the most fundamentally kind and decent country superstar since Vince Gill is the icing on the cake.  I’m rooting for him to win. 

JK: The ACMs gave Aldean their “Artist of the Decade” honor after he appeared in literal Blackface, so I assume they’ll have no real reservations about giving the year’s biggest award to the man who, both artistically and as a cultural barometer, stands as the genre’s current biggest embarrassment. Combs could win as a, “Look! We’re being slightly less problematic! But only just so!” alternative, but he’s not quite the commercial juggernaut he was a couple of album cycles back,

I remain a fan of Stapleton’s, and he did a ton of great, meaningful charity work over the last year that made him a tremendous ambassador for the country industry. And his coaxing of Patty Loveless back onto public stages played no small part in reminding voters to put her into the Country Music Hall Of Fame, and that’s a public service, too. He’d be my second pick behind Brown, who’s balancing crossover public appeal with a distinctive and important artistic POV like no country act since The Chicks’ heyday.

 

Male Artist of the Year

Will Win:

• Kane Brown – KJC
• Luke Combs
• Jordan Davis
• Chris Stapleton
• Morgan Wallen – JK

Should Win:

• Kane Brown – KJC, JK
• Luke Combs
• Jordan Davis
• Chris Stapleton
• Morgan Wallen

KJC:  Over the past seven years, this award has been given to only three men: Thomas Rhett, Luke Combs, and last year’s winner, Chris Stapleton.  I can’t discount Combs or Stapleton, who have both had strong years, but I think this race is Kane Brown’s best shot at a major trophy. 

Making the cut in a field of seven for Entertainer is great, but it’s the Male Artist nomination that indicates to me that Brown is finally on the radar of the industry as one of the genre’s leading artists. I suspect that there are a lot of voters who will jump at the chance to finally acknowledge him, and this is their clearest opportunity to do it. 

JK: Unlike the CMAs, the ACMs did at least throw Kenny Chesney a win in this category despite his being the most limited vocalist of his generation. So I’m slightly more confident in my pick for Wallen here than in Entertainer Of The Year. Davis’ nomination is laughable; he’s this year’s Brett Young. Remember Brett Young and his godawful Dollar Tree James Blunt voice? Of course not, and that’ll be Davis in three years, too. If Brown had released nothing but “Whiskey Sour” in the last year, he’d still be the most deserving nominee in this field, running away. 

 

Female Artist of the Year

Will Win:

• Kelsea Ballerini
• Miranda Lambert
• Ashley McBryde
• Carly Pearce
• Lainey Wilson – KJC, JK

Should Win:

• Kelsea Ballerini
• Miranda Lambert
• Ashley McBryde – KJC, JK
• Carly Pearce
• Lainey Wilson

KJC:  After twelve years of only giving this award to Miranda Lambert or Carrie Underwood, there has been some refreshing turnover in this category, with wins going to Kacey Musgraves, Maren Morris, and Carly Pearce.  The ACMs have largely been in sync with the CMAs in this category, so I predict Lainey Wilson will repeat her CMA victory as the last three winners have done.

Wilson is a strong talent, but there are two nominees in this field more deserving of their first win. Kelsea Ballerini is making the best music of her career right now, and she’d be my personal pick if not for the presence of Ashley McBryde, who has emerged as the strongest and most innovative female artist the genre has seen in a very long time. 

JK: I’d be fine with a repeat win for Pearce, honestly, even though she just wrapped up her album cycle; she may be a studio creation, but what she and her team are able to create on record is awfully good. Still, McBryde is operating on another plane from the rest of the nominees right now, making some of the most compelling and adventurous work to come off Music Row since… well, since Lambert’s first three records, really. Wilson is sure to win. Though I wish she kept better company than the likes of HARDY– or, worse, LIV Golf– and had better taste than to cover 4 Non-Blondes, she’s a solid enough talent. 

 

Duo of the Year

Will Win:

• Brooks & Dunn
• Brothers Osborne – KJC
• Dan + Shay – JK
• Maddie & Tae
• The War and Treaty

Should Win:

• Brooks & Dunn
• Brothers Osborne
• Dan + Shay
• Maddie & Tae 
• The War and Treaty – JK, KJC

KJC: Keep an eye on the War and Treaty for the future, as they are certainly the most promising duo to hit country music since this award’s likely winners: Brothers Osborne.  They’ve also made the best music, so they’d be the ones to get my vote. 

I also wouldn’t mind seeing Maddie & Tae win, who have been chugging along for a decade now without much acknowledgement from their peers.  It’s like they’re the new Bellamy Brothers of the category! 

JK: I remain on Team BrOs, but they barely scraped new music– not counting their contributions to Lindeville that weren’t actually their work as a duo– into the eligibility period. Of the other four, the only nominee who released music I liked at all was The War & Treaty, whose presence here reminds me of the couple of years in the mid-aughts when Nickel Creek somehow got nominated for some Vocal Group awards. As ever, the Duo & Group categories should be merged.

 

Group of the Year

Will Win:

• Lady A
• Little Big Town
• Midland
• Old Dominion – KJC, JK
• Zac Brown Band

Should Win:

• Lady A
• Little Big Town
• Midland – JK
• Old Dominion
• Zac Brown Band – KJC

KJC: This has been the most dreadfully boring category in recent years..  Old Dominion has won this five years in a row already, while Little Big Town have four wins and Lady A have three. Surprisingly, Zac Brown Band have never won. I’d give it to them for their sheer longevity, simply because there isn’t anything impressive from any of the nominees during the eligibility period.  

JK: Can an entire category be considered deadweight? Of these five, Midland’s the only one who’s released anything I’ve liked at all in maybe the last five years? Old Dominion will surely repeat for reasons I cannot fathom.

 

New Female Artist of the Year

Will Win:

• Priscilla Block
• Megan Moroney – KJC, JK
• Caitlyn Smith
• Morgan Wade
• Hailey Whitters

Should Win:

• Priscilla Block
• Megan Moroney
• Caitlyn Smith – JK
• Morgan Wade
• Hailey Whitters – KJC

KJC: This is a really great lineup, with the only mediocre talent also being the most likely winner. This award has historically favored the new artist with the most commercial success, for better or for worse. I expect Megan Moroney to join the likes of Kellie Coffey and Julianne Hough in the latter group.

I’d like to see Hailey Whitters’ surprising success at radio get a boost from a win here. 

JK: Moroney just released what is the worst debut album I’ve heard since The JaneDear Girls. She makes RaeLynn sound like Connie Smith. But she has the entire machinery of Music Row assembled around her, hell-bent on making her a star because “rumored to be dating Morgan Wallen” is infinitely more important than any actual musical ability. She is gapingly untalented and will win this award anyway, and there are at least two-dozen women of color who can sing her the whole way off the face of the Earth and who can write her under literally any table and who have never had and never will have the opportunities she’s already been given.

Anyway. 

Smith should’ve been a star two full albums ago, and she’s one of the two or three best vocalists signed to a major label at the moment. Give or take Ashley McBryde, Kane Brown, and The War & Treaty, she’s released the strongest music of anyone on this ballot. Wade’s also a super interesting talent who’ll probably end up doing fine on the Americana circuit, and Whitters has slowly started to gain some traction. 

New Male Artist of the Year

Will Win:

• Zach Bryan
• Jackson Dean
• Ernest – KJC, JK
• Dylan Scott
• Nate Smith
• Bailey Zimmerman

Should Win:

• Zach Bryan – KJC, JK
• Jackson Dean
• Ernest
• Dylan Scott
• Nate Smith
• Bailey Zimmerman

KJC:  Zach Bryan should be the obvious winner here, but a quick scan of the ballot suggests that industry favorite Ernest has the best shot at a victory. 

JK: Surprise here is that Jelly Roll didn’t make the cut. He’d be more deserving than any of the actual nominees, save Bryan. I do think there’s an outside shot that Zimmerman and the three also-rans siphon off enough of Ernest’s support for Bryan to sneak out this win. But it’s more likely that Ernest’s place in Wallen’s orbit and his frequent co-writing gigs will be too much for even a sales and touring powerhouse like Bryan to overcome.

 

Album of the Year

Will Win:

• Ashley McBryde Presents: Lindeville, Ashley McBryde
• Bell Bottom Country, Lainey Wilson
• Growin’ Up, Luke Combs – KJC, JK
• Mr. Saturday Night, Jon Pardi
• Palomino, Miranda Lambert

Should Win:

• Ashley McBryde Presents: Lindeville, Ashley McBryde – KJC, JK
• Bell Bottom Country, Lainey Wilson
• Growin’ Up, Luke Combs
• Mr. Saturday Night, Jon Pardi
• Palomino, Miranda Lambert

KJC: I think that the team behind Lindeville missed a trick by submitting it as an Ashley McBryde album, but perhaps that’s due to some ACM rule that I’m not aware of.  Ideally, all of the contributing artists would be nominated here, which would give the best album in the category a better shot at winning.

The ACM voters tend to back really big commercial albums even if they aren’t very good (Dangerous: The Double Album, Blue, Not a Moment Too Soon), but there isn’t an album this year that’s a genuine behemoth. Combs has won this award before and Growin’ Up has done well enough to give him the edge, though don’t count out Miranda Lambert, who has won this trophy for five of her last six studio albums. 

JK: If Combs managed to get into the Best Country Album line-up at the Grammys, there’s no reason to think he won’t win at the ACMs. I’d say the only real threat here is Wilson, who seems poised to have a good few years on the awards circuit, now that Lambert’s run has tapered off. That Pardi didn’t make it into Male Artist would put him as a long-shot. Lindeville, of course, is the longest of long-shots to win, but it remains one of my favorite albums of the last few years.

 

Single Record of the Year

Will Win:

• “Heart Like a Truck,” Lainey Wilson
• “Never Wanted to Be That Girl,” Carly Pearce and Ashley McBryde
• “She Had Me at Heads Carolina,” Cole Swindell – JK
• “Thank God,” Kane Brown with Katelyn Brown
• “‘Til You Can’t,” Cody Johnson – KJC

Should Win:

• “Heart Like a Truck,” Lainey Wilson
• “Never Wanted to Be That Girl,” Carly Pearce and Ashley McBryde – JK
• “She Had Me at Heads Carolina,” Cole Swindell
• “Thank God,” Kane Brown with Katelyn Brown – KJC
• “‘Til You Can’t,” Cody Johnson

KJC: This is a remarkable lineup, and even though I wasn’t as big a fan of “Til You Can’t” as many others have been, I can understand its message being powerful enough to give it a win in this category.

“Thank God” is my favorite here. Kane and Katelyn Brown give such fully realized performances that it’s easy to miss that this is essentially an acoustic record, devoid of the production melodrama that usually accompanies a married couple recording a love song. The Browns have nowhere to hide on this track and they sound absolutely fantastic. 

But voters really can’t go wrong here with this group of nominees. 

JK: I’m with Kevin that this is an unusually strong line-up: In terms of singles that were legit hit records, these are some of the most solid chart hits at country radio in some time. I’m going with Swindell’s hit because it gives voters a chance to simultaneously recognize another massive hit record and because of the “moment” 90s country is having. Personally, I’d vote for the Pearce and McBryde collab by a hair over the Browns, but I’m not going to be mad at any of these as the eventual winner.

 

Song of the Year

Will Win:

• “Sand In My Boots” 
  • Written by Ashley Gorley, Josh Osborne and Michael Hardy
  • Recorded by Morgan Wallen
• “She Had Me at Heads Carolina”
  • Written by Ashley Gorley, Cole Swindell, Jesse Frasure, Mark D. Sanders, Thomas Rhett, and Tim Nichols
  • Recorded by Cole Swindell
• “‘Til You Can’t” – KJC, JK
  • Written by Ben Stennis and Matt Rogers
  • Recorded by Cody Johnson
• “Wait in the Truck”
  • Written by Hunter Phelps, Jordan Schmidt, Michael Hardy, and Renee Blair
  • Recorded by Hardy featuring Lainey Wilson
• “You Should Probably Leave”
  • Written by Ashley Gorley, Chris DuBois, and Chris Stapleton
  • Recorded by Chris Stapleton

Should Win:

• “Sand In My Boots” 
  • Written by Ashley Gorley, Josh Osborne and Michael Hardy
  • Recorded by Morgan Wallen
• “She Had Me at Heads Carolina”
  • Written by Ashley Gorley, Cole Swindell, Jesse Frasure, Mark D. Sanders, Thomas Rhett, and Tim Nichols
  • Recorded by Cole Swindell
• “‘Til You Can’t” – – KJC, JK
  • Written by Ben Stennis and Matt Rogers
  • Recorded by Cody Johnson
• “Wait in the Truck”
  • Written by Hunter Phelps, Jordan Schmidt, Michael Hardy, and Renee Blair
  • Recorded by Hardy featuring Lainey Wilson
• “You Should Probably Leave”
  • Written by Ashley Gorley, Chris DuBois, and Chris Stapleton
  • Recorded by Chris Stapleton

KJC: I think that “Til You Can’t” is the best song of the five, even though the recording itself fell a bit short for me.  The ACM tends to favor heavier material in this category, so I suspect it will be a tight race between “Til You Can’t” and “Wait in the Truck.”

JK: Is this really my only Will Win / Should Win match? I was tempted to say that “Wait In The Truck” will win, and I know it’s foolhardy to bet against Stapleton, but ‘Til You Can’t” is just such a massive record that it’s sure to win something, and this seems like the best bet.

 

Visual Media of the Year

Will Win:

• “Heartfirst,” Kelsea Ballerini
• “She Had Me at Heads Carolina,” Cole Swindell
• “Thank God,” Kane Brown with Katelyn Brown
• “‘Til You Can’t,” Cody Johnson
• “Wait in the Truck,” Hardy featuring Lainey Wilson – KJC, JK
• “What He Didn’t Do,” Carly Pearce

Should Win:

• “Heartfirst,” Kelsea Ballerini
• “She Had Me at Heads Carolina,” Cole Swindell
• “Thank God,” Kane Brown with Katelyn Brown – KJC
• “‘Til You Can’t,” Cody Johnson
• “Wait in the Truck,” Hardy featuring Lainey Wilson
• “What He Didn’t Do,” Carly Pearce

KJC: Decreased revenue on recorded products has nearly killed the music video as a viable art form.  Just take a look at what was enough to make a video stand out here.  Kelsea Ballerini rides a roller coaster!  Carly Pearce goes swimming! Cole Swindell watches a karaoke performance! Cody Johnson wails in a field while his family eats dinner! 

“Wait in the Truck” is the only clip with a narrative, and it seems like an easy winner because of it, even if I’d personally go for the uplifting Browns clip over the “look at me, I went to jail to save a helpless woman!” camera mugging that Hardy does for five straight minutes. 

JK: I mean, “Wait In The Truck” is a preposterous song, a fantastic premise that somehow manages to have a narrative that’s both overwritten and underwritten at the same time. The video exacerbates those aspects of it, but it’s the only one of these videos that I found interesting. Not saying it’s a good video– the Browns probably have that– but it’s the most memorable.

 

Music Event of the Year

Will Win:

• “At The End of a Bar,” Chris Young with Mitchell Tenpenny
• “She Had Me at Heads Carolina [Remix],” Cole Swindell and Jo Dee Messina
• “Thank God,” Kane Brown with Katelyn Brown – KJC, 
• “Thinking ‘Bout You,” Dustin Lynch featuring MacKenzie Porter
• “Wait in the Truck,” Hardy featuring Lainey Wilson – JK

Should Win:

• “At The End of a Bar,” Chris Young with Mitchell Tenpenny
• “She Had Me at Heads Carolina [Remix],” Cole Swindell and Jo Dee Messina
• “Thank God,” Kane Brown with Katelyn Brown – KJC, JK
• “Thinking ‘Bout You,” Dustin Lynch featuring MacKenzie Porter
• “Wait in the Truck,” Hardy featuring Lainey Wilson

KJC: “Thank God” is the strongest collaboration in a lineup with some good moments. It’s a thrill to see Jo Dee Messina on the ballot again, and I wouldn’t be made if she won for the remix of a song that should’ve had her on its original recording.

For those of you confused as to why “Never Wanted to Be That Girl” is up for Single Record of the Year but not Musical Event, it’s because it won this award last year. 

JK: Wilson’s torrid vocal turn will carry “Wait in the Truck” to a win here, unless voters are feeling like Messina deserved more from them during her heyday. Which is possible and probably true. I agree with Kevin that “Thank God” is the most organic duet here, and Katelyn Brown’s performance was a pleasant surprise.

 

Songwriter of the Year

Will Win:

• Nicolle Galyon
• Ashley Gorley – KJC, JK
• Chase McGill
• Josh Osborne 
• Hunter Phelps

Should Win:

• Nicolle Galyon
• Ashley Gorley
• Chase McGill
• Josh Osborne
• Hunter Phelps

KJC:  This is starting to feel like an award that was created to give additional trophies to the core group of songwriters who have an iron grip on the “co-writing with artists so they can get some extra royalties” market.  

Gorley’s a guess on my part because I can’t name an award-worthy song that any of these guys have written this year, though I’ve enjoyed some songs from all five writers in the past. 

JK: Five guns-for-hire whose names are on 95% of the songs that chart at country radio and who do not have a single defining characteristic I could point to among the lot of them. Gallyon released a decent enough solo album last year. Beyond that? I have no reason to pick any one of these five over the others for a “Should Win,” but I guess Gorley’s three entries in the Song Of The Year race to Osborne’s two gives him the edge to win.

 

Artist-Songwriter of the Year

Will Win:

• Luke Combs – KJC
• Ernest
• Hardy – JK
• Miranda Lambert
• Morgan Wallen

Should Win:

• Luke Combs – KJC
• Ernest
• Hardy
• Miranda Lambert – JK
• Morgan Wallen

KJC: What an unimaginative inaugural lineup.  Lambert’s written some great songs in the past but her recent output hasn’t been up to her historical standards.  Ernest and Hardy seem like they’re here because they’re no longer eligible for Songwriter of the Year, and Wallen’s just flat out bad at everything that he does

By process of elimination, I’ll go with Luke Combs, who is writing his own hits with a distinctive point of view. He’s the only one here worthy of a nomination for his work over the past year. .

JK: Hoo boy. HARDY’s co-writes with a plurality of the other artists nominated up and down the ballot and his influence on the structure and lyrical content of current hits, for better or mostly worse, makes me think he’ll win. Surely to God Wallen is recognized as being dependent upon his co-writers. Combs could run the table on the night, I suppose, but the thing he’s getting the most attention for at this exact moment is a Tracy Chapman cover, and I would need about 1500 words just to get into that. So I suppose Lambert would be my pick for some strong cuts (“Waxahatchee,” especially) from Palomino, even though I’m real done with her.