Here are our staff picks and predictions for the 50th Annual CMA Awards, which will be handed out on Wednesday, November 2.
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
- Garth Brooks
- Luke Bryan
- Chris Stapleton
- Carrie Underwood – KJC, LW, JK, TS, SG
- Keith Urban
Will Win:
- Garth Brooks
- Luke Bryan – LW
- Chris Stapleton
- Carrie Underwood – KJC, JK, TS
- Keith Urban – SG
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
- Dierks Bentley
- Eric Church – KJC, LW, TS, SG
- Tim McGraw
- Chris Stapleton – JK
- Keith Urban
Will Win:
- Dierks Bentley – SG
- Eric Church – LW
- Tim McGraw
- Chris Stapleton – KJC, JK, TS
- Keith Urban
KJC: Dierks Bentley and Eric Church are the most overdue for this honor, and Church made much better music this year. I expect Stapleton to repeat.
LW:It’s very hard for me to predict who will win this award this year! My personal favorite vocalists from this category are Chris Stapleton and Dierks Bentley, but I have no doubt that Eric Church deserves the award this year and anything is possible after Chris Stapleton’s wonderfully surprising upset last year.
JK: Stapleton’s shadow has only grown even longer since last year’s ceremony, when he more or less ran the table. Simply based upon the strength of his voice, he’d narrowly get my vote over Eric Church, who has released mainstream country’s highest-quality music during the eligibility period. Nightmare scenario is Dierks Bentley being rewarded for releasing his career-worst-by-a-huge-margin work.
TS: I think the voters will remain in Stapleton’s camp, and that’s heartening; but Church captured my attention more in the eligibility period.
SG: Chris Stapleton didn’t put out any new music this year, and Sturgill Simpson didn’t make it out of the qualifying rounds, so that leaves Eric Church as the best chance to recognize true artistic merit. But, if Dierks Bentley gets the nod, maybe he’ll go back to releasing “Somewhere on a Beach”-quality music.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
- Kelsea Ballerini
- Miranda Lambert
- Maren Morris
- Kacey Musgraves
- Carrie Underwood – KJC, LW, JK, TS, SG
Will Win:
- Kelsea Ballerini
- Miranda Lambert – JK, TS
- Maren Morris
- Kacey Musgraves
- Carrie Underwood – KJC, LW, SG
KJC: Carrie Underwood is the only artist who made music in the past year who is worthy of this award, and her strength across the ballot this year leads me to believe that she will win. I hope Musgraves returns next year with another album, because I’d like to see her win this in the future.
LW:It’s no secret that Miranda Lambert is my favorite female vocalist in mainstream country, but I know that Carrie Underwood is the one who deserves this award this year, not to mention that I enjoyed Storyteller more than I’ve enjoyed any of Underwood’s other albums.
JK: Logic and actual eligibility requirements be damned, there simply isn’t precedent– just check out Kevin’s flashback feature on this category– for Underwood to reclaim this award after such a long stretch without a win. But she’s the only one of the five nominees who balanced a consistent commercial impact with better-than-average quality material. I didn’t love the first three choices for singles from Storyteller, but they’re still far superior to what Ballerini, who could prove a spoiler, has released. Like Leeann, I love Lambert and have shouted her virtues from the hilltops for years. But she shouldn’t even be nominated– during the eligibility period, the only thing she released was an album track from Dave Cobb’s Southern Family compilation. Based on the strength of “Vice” (and the newly released “Keeper of the Flame”) I imagine I’ll be firmly back in her corner before too long, but I expect to be rolling my eyes when she inevitably claims her 149th straight Female Vocalist win.
TS: I’d be happy to see Morris take this if Underwood manages to win EOTY, but I have no reason to think this will go to anyone other than Lambert.
SG: The ballot misspelled Aubrie Sellers’ name as “Maren Morris,” which is a little baffling. With a double album coming out, Miranda Lambert will dominate this category for the next 2-3 years, but Carrie Underwood should get the call this year.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
- Lady Antebellum
- Little Big Town – KJC, LW, TS, SG
- Old Dominion
- Rascal Flatts
- Zac Brown Band
Will Win:
- Lady Antebellum
- Little Big Town – KJC, LW, JK, TS, SG
- Old Dominion
- Rascal Flatts
- Zac Brown Band
KJC: Is there a band other than Little Big Town right now? Some great ones, actually. They’re just not nominated.
LW: No comment needed. Little Big Town seem to be the only real nominee who isn’t a stretch to be nominated in this category this year.
JK: Usually, it’s a paltry Vocal Duo Of The Year line-up that leads to my annual reminder that the Group and Duo categories should be combined, but here we are. The downward spiral of quality Lady Antebellum has been on for years has led them to take a hiatus, so their nomination is baffling. Zac Brown Band, much like Dierks Bentley in the Male Vocalist race, would be winning for far and away their worst material should they score an overdue win. I’ve found Old Dominion’s output to date to be uniformly awful, while I’ve never understood the appeal of Rascal Flatts at all. Which leaves Little Big Town, who released a one-off pop side project and one god-awful single (“Pain Killer”) during the eligibility period. I assume their streak will continue– barring a Zac Brown Band upset– but I’ll just close my eyes and pretend Turnpike Troubadours, Dixie Chicks, and The Mavericks were all nominated instead.
TS: This is an easy one.
SG: With nobody else stepping up to the plate this year, Little Big Town is the group to beat.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
- Brothers Osborne
- Dan + Shay
- Florida Georgia Line
- Joey + Rory – KJC, LW, JK
- Maddie & Tae – TS, SG
Will Win:
- Brothers Osborne
- Dan + Shay
- Florida Georgia Line – JK, SG
- Joey + Rory – KJC, LW, TS
- Maddie & Tae
KJC: Sentiment aside, the Joey + Rory posthumous release was a genuine hit. They deserve to be acknowledged, and this is the final opportunity for the CMA to do so. I think they’ll do the right thing.
LW: I think Joey+Rory has a chance of winning based on their heartbreaking story and I won’t be upset if they do. If not for Joey+Rory, however, I would be rooting for Maddie & Tae all the way!
JK: Radio seems to want nothing to do with Maddie & Tae because of course it doesn’t, so they haven’t emerged as the duo to save us all from the ongoing dominance of Florida Georgia Line. My vote would easily go to Joey + Rory, and not just on sentiment. Their album, Hymns That Are Important to Us, is one of the year’s best. Had it scored the Album of the Year nomination that I thought it would, it might seem more likely that they could upset Florida Georgia Line here, but it’s hard to see that happening.
TS: I hate to vote against Joey + Rory, and I’ll be touched if they win. But Maddie & Tae have made this category fresh and relevant again, and I think they also deserve this recognition.
SG: There were a couple years where FLA-GA —— had some competition, but unless radio figures out that Bros. Osborne or Maddie & Tae deserve steady airplay, I don’t see them giving up their stranglehold on this award. It would be nice if the CMA actually acknowledged the passing of Joey Feek.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
- Kelsea Ballerini
- Brothers Osborne – LW
- Maren Morris – JK, TS
- Old Dominion
- Cole Swindell
Will Win:
- Kelsea Ballerini – KJC, LW
- Brothers Osborne
- Maren Morris – JK, TS
- Old Dominion
- Cole Swindell – SG
KJC: I don’t like any of these artists enough to have a personal preference. I give Ballerini the edge because of her support at radio.
LW:Brothers Osborne is the only nominee that I really enjoy from this category, but I see Ballerini winning.
JK: Morris is among this year’s most nominated artists and, based on momentum, seems poised to win this category. I still love “My Church,” but I’m not convinced she’s long to stick around the country genre based upon the other tracks on Hero. Still, it’s not like I’d pick Ballerini, a marginal talent at best, or Swindell or Old Dominion, neither of whom does a single thing well between them. Brothers Osborne are solid and wouldn’t be a terrible winner in terms of artistic mettle, but they’d be a surprising winner nonetheless.
TS: Morris was this year’s most vibrant surprise, and I’ll remain hopeful that she’ll win.
SG: Just please give the man his New Artist award before he gets nominated five more times, please.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
- Dierks Bentley, Black
- Eric Church, Mr. Misunderstood – KJC, JK, TS, SG
- Maren Morris, Hero
- Carrie Underwood, Storyteller – LW
- Keith Urban, Ripcord
Will Win:
- Dierks Bentley, Black
- Eric Church, Mr. Misunderstood – KJC, LW, TS, SG
- Maren Morris, Hero
- Carrie Underwood, Storyteller – JK
- Keith Urban, Ripcord
KJC: The only albums I enjoy of the five are Church’s and Underwood’s. I think that Church made the better album of the two, and since they’ve honored him in this category before, I think that they will do so again.
LW:I actually think that Underwood or Church should win the award, but I expect that Church will ultimately be the winner.
JK: Quality-wise, this one’s an easy pick, as Church’s album is his best to date and is a testament to everything contemporary country gets right. In terms of who actually wins, there’s a case to be made for any of these five. Morris has a slew of nominations and even more hype behind her, and people who like Hero are passionate about it. Bentley continues to ascend to the genre’s A-list and hasn’t been recognized perhaps as often as he should have; if voters feel he’s overdue, his worst album could take this. Urban’s album has some vocal supporters, and it seems like nearly everyone in Nashville worked on it, which could sway some voters. I don’t love Storyteller— its high points are the best moments of Underwood’s career, but it’s a more uneven set than was Blown Away— but this could give voters an easy way to recognize Underwood if they aren’t going to give her Female Vocalist or Entertainer of the Year; she deserves both of those trophies more than this one, but I’m thinking she ultimately wins the night’s biggest prize and this one.
TS: Mr. Misunderstood stands above the rest, though I could see a case for Hero and Storyteller.
SG: Eric Church broke most of Nashville’s rules, first by releasing an album by surprise, and then by releasing a first single that name-checked Ray Wylie Hubbard. But Mr. Misunderstood was a brilliant album and is heads above the rest of the competition in this category.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
- Eric Church, “Record Year” – JK, TS
- Tim McGraw, “Humble and Kind” – KJC, SG
- Maren Morris, “My Church”
- Thomas Rhett, “Die a Happy Man”
- Chris Stapleton, “Nobody to Blame” – LW
Will Win:
- Eric Church, “Record Year” – LW
- Tim McGraw, “Humble and Kind” – SG
- Maren Morris, “My Church” – KJC
- Thomas Rhett, “Die a Happy Man” – JK, TS
- Chris Stapleton, “Nobody to Blame”
KJC: The CMA has a tendency to honor big records by new artists in this category, and I expect them to do so again this year with “My Church.” That being said, I love “Record Year”…and love “Humble and Kind” even more.
LW:I think this could be Eric Church’s year and he would deserve it, but my favorite of these songs is “Nobody to Blame.”
JK: This category pits two excellent hit singles by Church and McGraw against two excellent sort-of-hit singles by Morris and Stapleton… and the shameless Ed Sheeran knock-off that Rhett turned into a massive hit. Church would get my vote by a hair over Morris, while it seems likely that vote-splitting among the four best singles will clear the way for Rhett.
TS: “Record Year” is lovely and clever and seems to fit this category best, though “My Church” is my favorite of the five. I think the only undeserving single may win, though.
SG: This is probably the strongest group of nominees in years, I believe. Thomas Rhett is probably the weak link, and Tim McGraw probably gets the sentimental vote for a late-career smash single, but it will be hard to be disappointed at any of the results here.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
- “Burning House”
Written by Jeff Bhasker, Cam, and Tyler Johnson - “Die a Happy Man”
Written by Sean Douglas, Thomas Rhett, and Joe Spargur - “Humble and Kind”- KJC, TS, SG
Written by Lori McKenna - “My Church”
Written by busbee and Maren Morris - “Record Year” – LW, JK
Written by Eric Church and Jeff Hyde
Will Win:
- “Burning House” – TS
Written by Jeff Bhasker, Cam, and Tyler Johnson - “Die a Happy Man”
Written by Sean Douglas, Thomas Rhett, and Joe Spargur - “Humble and Kind” – KJC, JK, SG
Written by Lori McKenna - “My Church”
Written by busbee and Maren Morris - “Record Year” – LW
Written by Eric Church and Jeff Hyde
KJC: Lori McKenna is finally being recognized as one of our best songwriters, and I predict that she will become the first woman in CMA history to win Song of the Year twice in a row. She deserves it, too.
LW:I think that “Record Year” will win and that it deserves to win, but “My Church” has a chance, too.
JK: As with Single of the Year, there are four well-written songs pitted against a song that seems like it should have been the subject of litigation in a post-“Blurred Lines” world. I doubt that will matter as much in the Single of the Year category, but it’s harder to imagine songwriters rallying around something so openly derivative. As for who benefits? McKenna’s “Humble and Kind” seems to fit best with this category’s history and would be a worthy winner for its use of novel images in the context of a familiar song structure.
TS: 2016 desperately needs “Humble and Kind.”
Music Video of the Year
Should Win:
- Dierks Bentley, “Somewhere on a Beach”
Directed by Wes Edwards - Cam, “Burning House”
Directed by Trey Fanjoy - Eric Church, “Record Year”
Directed by Reid Long and John Peets - Tim McGraw, “Humble and Kind”
Directed by Wes Edwards - Chris Stapleton, “Fire Away” – KJC, JK
Directed by Tim Mattia
Will Win:
- Dierks Bentley, “Somewhere on a Beach”
Directed by Wes Edwards - Cam, “Burning House”
Directed by Trey Fanjoy - Eric Church, “Record Year”
Directed by Reid Long and John Peets - Tim McGraw, “Humble and Kind”
Directed by Wes Edwards - Chris Stapleton, “Fire Away” – KJC, JK
Directed by Tim Mattia
KJC: “Fire Away” is in a completely different league than the rest of these clips.
JK: Stapleton’s powerful video is the first country music video in ages that felt like an event and not just a literal, rote interpretation of its lyrics. Cam’s “Burning House” would be a solid but distant second-place choice, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Stapleton doesn’t take this.
Musical Event of the Year
Should Win:
- Dierks Bentley featuring Elle King, “Different for Girls”
- Luke Bryan featuring Karen Fairchild, “Home Alone Tonight”
- Morgane Stapleton with Chris Stapleton, “You are My Sunshine” – KJC, LW, JK, TS, SG
- Keith Urban featuring Carrie Underwood, “The Fighter”
- Chris Young with Cassadee Pope, “Think of You”
Will Win:
- Dierks Bentley featuring Elle King, “Different for Girls” – JK, SG
- Luke Bryan featuring Karen Fairchild, “Home Alone Tonight” – LW
- Morgane Stapleton with Chris Stapleton, “You are My Sunshine”- KJC
- Keith Urban featuring Carrie Underwood, “The Fighter” – TS
- Chris Young with Cassadee Pope, “Think of You”
KJC: One of these things is not like the others. The Stapleton collaboration just might win because of that.
LW: While I’m not happy about it, I think this will go to either Luke Bryan’s or Keith Urban’s collaborations.
JK: I honest-to-God hate the Bentley and King duet, but it was near the top of the charts for the duration of the final voting period; timing matters, even for a regressive bit of condescending gender stereotyping. Morgane Stapleton is a phenomenal vocalist, and her harmonies with her husband on their bluesy rendition of “You Are My Sunshine” are far and away the class of this field. Moreover, the track only stokes anticipation for a full solo album that could break her into the Female Vocalist race.
TS: No question who should win, but I think this will be a toss-up between Urban and Bryan’s star power.
SG: If Morgane Stapleton’s appearance on Dave Cobb’s “Southern Family” compilation didn’t make you drool for her upcoming solo album, then I hope you’re enjoying your Raelynn album.
Musician of the Year
Should Win:
- Jerry Douglas (Dobro/Lap Steel Guitar) – SG
- Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – KJC, LW, JK
- Dann Huff (Guitar)
- Brent Mason (Guitar)
- Derek Wells (Guitar)
Will Win:
- Jerry Douglas (Dobro/Lap Steel Guitar) – SG
- Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar)
- Dann Huff (Guitar) – KJC, LW, JK
- Brent Mason (Guitar)
- Derek Wells (Guitar)
KJC: Paul Franklin deserves it, but a guitarist always seems to get it.
LW:It’s strange that last year’s winner isn’t nominated this year, but I assume that one of the guitar nominees will win again. I’d love to be wrong and see Paul Franklin or Jerry Douglas win though!
JK: The eligibility requirements for this award changed this year such that nominees had to perform on a set number of hit singles, which knocked perennial nominees Sam Bush and Mac McAnally (and, evidently, literally any woman) out of the running. Franklin and Douglas are legends, and both would be deserving winners. Huff and Mason have worked with so many contemporary stars that it seems likely that one of them will take the award home
SG: With all due respect to Mac McAnally, it’s definitely time for some of Nashville’s other musical geniuses to get their due. This is another category where it’s impossible to pick a disappointing winner.
I kind of think that Eric Church that might upset Stapleton for male Vocalist, especially after not being nominated in EOTY. And, please, just give Carrie EOTY and Female Vocalist. PLEASE!!!!!!! :)
Also, I honestly can’t wait for tomorrow! It seems to be shaping up to be a great show. Definitely more excited than I was for the CMAs 50th than I was for the ACMs 50th, for sure. :)
I’m surprised none of you predict Garth to win EOTY. Hasn’t his tour been huge?
Ack, I messed up my Dierks comment for the Male Vocalist blurb. I meant to say that he would go back to his previous ability and stop releasing “Somewhere on a Beach” quality music. One should never type and answer trick or treaters at the same time.
I’m surprised y’all like humble and kind so much. It’s very twee and songs like that usually get hit pretty hard by music reviews sites. I like the song though.
Troy,
For the life of me, I can’t figure out what “twee” means?
@Leeann Overly sweet to the point it comes across disingenuous. Think like Mariah Carey’s song Hero or a hallmark movie.
^ Maybe some people are overly sweet, though, and thus to them it’s genuine?
In all honesty, I’m just hoping Lori McKenna walks away with Song of the Year. I live in her neck of the woods, so I’m probably biased. But I did here her debut ‘Humble & Kind’ live at a local Little Big Town show just before ‘Girl Crush’ exploded.
Of the five, Eric Church had the strongest album artistically. No one else even comes close.
Will the CMA man up and give Joey+Rory Duo of the Year? Probably not, but they’ve surprised us in the past.
I don’t disagree with much of anything on here, but I think you’re undermining the rise of Old Dominion. ‘SnapBack’ was a HUGE hit this year and ‘Song For Another Time’ has taken off as well. If Little Big Town’s pop detour is seen as a deterrent, they could emerge victorious. I’d still give LBT the edge, though.
No nominations for Brandy Clark or Jennifer Nettles so I’m watching Game 7 of the World Series tonight instead of the cma’s. (to be honest if they were nominated I’d still watch the WS and record the cma’s so i could skip Brad & Carrie’s chatter, the commercials and all the artists I don’t like.)
I’ll be rooting for “Humble and Kind” for single and song.
As long as Carrie wins EOTY, I’ll be happy!!!
We will be liveblogging tonight!!