CMA Awards 2015 – Staff Picks & Predictions

The 49th Annual Country Music Association Awards will be handed out on Wednesday, November 4. Once again, the ceremony is hosted by Brad Paisley and Carrie Underwood.

Here are the personal picks and predictions from the Country Universe staff.

Entertainer of the Year

Should Win:

• Garth Brooks – Leeann
• Luke Bryan
• Kenny Chesney
• Eric Church – Jonathan, Sam, Tara
  
• Miranda Lambert – Ben, Kevin
  

Will Win:

• Garth Brooks
• Luke Bryan – Ben, Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann, Sam, Tara
  
• Kenny Chesney
• Eric Church
• Miranda Lambert

Ben: I can’t see any clear frontrunner here, but I think Lambert is overdue.

Jonathan: Bryan brought his “Farm Tour” here a few weeks back and created one of the biggest and longest-lasting traffic incidents in local history, so I’m rooting against him here on principle, though it seems likely that he’ll repeat. I remain a fan of Lambert’s, but this seems like an odd year for her to win this award based upon her stalled commercial momentum, so I’d grudgingly vote for Church.

Kevin:  Maybe it’s just because record sales are so much lower these days, but none of these acts feel like they’re hitting on all cylinders: radio, retail, and the road. I’d like Lambert to win because she’s the most distinguished nominee who hasn’t won yet, but I see no logical reason that Bryan wouldn’t repeat.

Leeann: It’ll probably be Bryan based on his success in both radio and concert sales, but I’d still love for Brooks to win, since his tour has been extremely successful even after all these years.

Sam: Eric Church has had a nice run of releasing quality music and being a popular concert draw, which should earn him something. I just don’t know that Church’s success is enough to dethrone Luke Bryan, who for better or worse, is the biggest draw in country music at the moment.

Tara: Lambert’s overdue, but a Church win could mix things up and serve as a reminder to the crop of interchangeable, rising male artists that there are other ways to show masculinity. Still, this is Bryan’s award to lose.

Male Vocalist of the Year

Should Win:

• Dierks Bentley – Ben, Kevin
  
• Luke Bryan
• Eric Church
• Blake Shelton
• Chris Stapleton – Jonathan, Leeann, Sam, Tara

Will Win:

• Dierks Bentley – Kevin, Tara
• Luke Bryan – Jonathan
• Eric Church – Sam
• Blake Shelton – Leeann
• Chris Stapleton

Ben: Hoping that the voters will get over Shelton and recognize someone else in this category.

Jonathan: I’ve been pulling for Bentley for the past few awards cycles, and I’d be thrilled to see him earn some long overdue recognition for his increasingly rare balance of artistic mettle and commercial relevance. But Stapleton, one of the very best singers in Nashville, would get my vote here. I think he has a real look at this– he is exceptionally well-liked and respected by his peers– in much the same way that Alison Krauss was able to win back in 1995. But I’m going to keep picking Bryan as the “Will Win” in this category until he finally stops Shelton’s winning streak.

Kevin:  Shelton can’t possibly win this for a sixth time. Can’t possibly. I think that Bentley is the most overdue, though I’d be very happy to see it go home with Church, too. But Bentley hasn’t won a major award since Horizon nine years ago, and that’s just ridiculous.

Leeann: Bentley and Stapleton are my clear picks and I’d be pleased if either win, but I’d be especially surprised if Stapleton won, since he’s still new to a lot of people, but I’d also be surprised if Bentley won, since he’s  already been passed over so many times. With a heavy heart, I predict that it’ll be Shelton or Bryan. 

Sam: The fact that Chris Stapleton even got a nomination over people like Jason Aldean, Keith Urban or Tim McGraw indicates that there is a strong group of CMA voters who are interested in seeing quality get long overdue recognition. I just question if it’s a large enough voting bloc to give him the win. I think Eric Church gets some recognition, but if either he, Stapleton or the perpetually underrated Dierks Bentley wins over Luke Bryan or Blake Shelton, it’s a win for substance over style.

Tara: I’d be happy with a Bentley, Church or Stapleton win, but I can’t root against Stapleton, my favorite of all the artists who made surprising commercial breakthroughs this year. His humility makes me want this for him even more. I truly can’t see Shelton winning this for the sixth year in a row, so if Bryan wins Entertainer of the Year as we all suspect he will, Bentley might be next in line for this award.

Female Vocalist of the Year

Should Win:

• Kelsea Ballerini
• Miranda Lambert
• Kacey Musgraves – Ben, Kevin, Sam
• Carrie Underwood – Jonathan, Leeann
• Lee Ann Womack – Tara

 

Will Win:

• Kelsea Ballerini
• Miranda Lambert – Leeann
• Kacey Musgraves – Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
• Carrie Underwood
• Lee Ann Womack

Ben: Lambert was between albums this year, so this would be a great time to acknowledge Musgraves.

Jonathan: In terms of who released the music I liked the best during the eligibility period, Womack would have the edge over Musgraves and Lambert. I honestly don’t like “Something in the Water,” “Little Toy Guns,” or “Smoke Break” at all, but I firmly believe that Underwood should have been recognized during her Blown Away run and that she is way too far out in front of the other four women in terms of commercial impact not to make her my pick here.

The fact that Underwood won this award prematurely based upon a #1 debut single makes me at least a little nervous that Ballerini, who seems like a genuinely pleasant individual but whose music could not be more dull, could somehow pull this off, but she certainly doesn’t have Underwood’s pipes. At this point, though, it’s probably foolhardy to bet against Lambert, but I will tentatively say that this could be how the voters recognize Musgraves this year.

Kevin: Lambert’s had a great run, and I can even imagine her getting a sixth consecutive win. But Kacey Musgraves put out a great album this year and she’s the most deserving of the two nominees who haven’t won this award before.

Leeann: I’d be happy with Musgraves, Lambert or Underwood, but I think Underwood deserves the award and expect Lambert to win.

Sam: Lambert’s recent material has been pretty lackluster, so I think it’s time to reward Kacey Musgraves for a couple of excellent albums.

Tara: Like Jonathan, Womack released the music I enjoyed most in the eligibility period, and I’d like to see her rewarded for making an album that seemed to have brought out her firmest sense of artistic identity. If Underwood’s label releases the bolder singles on Storyteller, I’ll be back in her camp next year, but for now, my heart’s with Womack and my head’s with Musgraves.

Vocal Group of the Year

Should Win:

• The Band Perry
• Lady Antebellum
• Little Big Town – Ben, Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann, Sam, Tara
• Rascal Flatts
• Zac Brown Band

Will Win:

• The Band Perry
• Lady Antebellum
• Little Big Town – Ben, Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann, Sam, Tara
• Rascal Flatts
• Zac Brown Band

Ben: Little Big Town has had this category cornered for a while now, and none of the other nominees seem poised to take it from them.

Jonathan: When we did our ACM picks back in the spring, I wrote that I imagined I would be firmly in Zac Brown Band’s corner come CMA time. Then they released Jekyll & Hyde, perhaps the single-most disappointing country album of the year. So the presumptive frontrunners to win, Little Big Town, remain my pick on the strength of “Girl Crush.”

Kevin: I’ve been pulling for ZBB for a long time, but their current album is just embarrassing. Little Big Town are the only nominees that made music this year that wasn’t, at some point, a little embarrassing.

Leeann: I was horrified by Zac Brown Band’s  disappointing album and I have no reason not to believe that Little Big Town will deservedly win the award.

Sam: This will be a much more interesting award next year, if A Thousand Horses or Old Dominion can sustain their early success and knock some of the deadwood out of the category. (Rascal Flatts, seriously?) But for now, it’s another win for LBT.

Tara: Well that was easy. “Girl Crush” for the win.

Vocal Duo of the Year

Should Win:

• Brothers Osborne
• Dan + Shay
• Florida Georgia Line
• Maddie & Tae – Ben, Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann, Sam, Tara
• Thompson Square

Will Win:

• Brothers Osborne
• Dan + Shay
• Florida Georgia Line – Jonathan, Leeann
• Maddie & Tae – Ben, Kevin, Sam, Tara
• Thompson Square

Ben: I’ve rarely cared a straw over who wins this category in the post-Sugarland, post-Brooks & Dunn era, but it sure feels good to actually have someone to root for this year.

Jonathan: I’m just not optimistic enough to say that the utterly charming Maddie & Tae will end Florida Georgia Line’s reign of terror just yet, but I really, really want to be wrong.

Kevin: Maddie & Tae are the real deal, and they’ve got the debut album to back that up. It’s the first time in years that voters have a chance to pick a winner in this category that isn’t by default. I think they’ll take it.

Leeann: It’s not prudent to pray that somebody  wins an award, but if I were to do so, I would pray that Maddie & Tae ripped this away from Florida Georgia Line. It’s true that I have no love for FGL, but even more than that, it turns out that I absolutely adore Maddie & Tae.

Sam: FLA-GA Line have pretty much run out of ideas after two albums and a couple EPs, so here’s an opportunity to promote a female act after the Tomatogate issue of the summer.

Tara: Maddie & Tae released what has become my most-played album of the year, and they’re eerily consistent in how charming, wise and invested in country music they come across in both their music and interviews. I’m firmly in their corner, and I don’t see why the CMA voters couldn’t be as well, considering their mainstream appeal.

New Artist of the Year

Should Win:

• Kelsea Ballerini
• Sam Hunt
• Maddie & Tae – Jonathan, Leeann, Tara
• Thomas Rhett
• Chris Stapleton – Ben, Kevin, Sam

Will Win:

• Kelsea Ballerini – Tara
• Sam Hunt – Jonathan
• Maddie & Tae – Ben
• Thomas Rhett
• Chris Stapleton – Kevin, Leeann, Sam

Ben: I don’t have the guts to predict Stapleton and I refuse to predict Hunt, so I’ll take the middle ground with Maddie & Tae.

Jonathan: As a long-time fan of The SteelDrivers, I don’t feel like I could vote for Stapleton as a new artist, but I’ll concede that’s just quibbling over semantics. There’s a reasonable case to be made for any of the five nominees emerging as the winner, and I would love for the False Tricksy Hobbit to siphon off enough votes from Sam Hunt (or vice versa) to clear the way for either Stapleton or Maddie & Tae. But I worry that Hunt’s sales stats will carry too much weight for the voters to ignore, though I could also see a situation with two vote-splits (Hunt – Rhett, Stapleton – Maddie & Tae) clearing a path for Ballerini.

Kevin:  At first, I predicted Sam Hunt. That made me die a little inside. I’m changing it to Chris Stapleton because I just don’t want my name next to Sam Hunt.

Leeann: Please, please, please, let it be Maddie & Tae or Chris Stapleton! They’re the only reasons that I even care about this year’s CMA Awards show.

Sam: If there are enough Chris Stapleton fans to get him a nomination for Male Vocalist of the Year, I’m hoping there’s enough to get him the New Artist win. Just please, please, give it to anyone except Sam Hunt, who’s been called the evolution of country music despite being perfectly average in every way. I can’t support Thomas Rhett, because he blatantly ripped off children’s author Sandra Boynton in “It Goes Like This.”

Tara: My ideal scenario is for Stapleton to win Male Vocalist of the Year and Maddie & Tae to win here; this seems most appropriate given Stapleton’s association with The SteelDrivers, as Jonathan pointed out. I don’t have a good sense for who will take this, but my gut says Ballerini, one of the few tomatoes who’s getting airplay.

Album of the Year

Should Win:

• Jason Aldean, Old Boots, New Dirt
• Kenny Chesney, The Big Revival
• Little Big Town, Pain Killer
• Kacey Musgraves, Pageant Material – Ben, Kevin, Leeann
• Chris Stapleton, Traveller  – Jonathan, Sam, Tara

Will Win:

• Jason Aldean, Old Boots, New Dirt
• Kenny Chesney, The Big Revival
• Little Big Town, Pain Killer – Ben, Kevin, Leeann
• Kacey Musgraves, Pageant Material – Sam, Tara
• Chris Stapleton, Traveller – Jonathan

Ben: Little Big Town offers a good balance of critical and commercial appeal, but my heart belongs to Musgraves’ Pageant Material.

Jonathan: I absolutely love “Dime Store Cowgirl” as a single, but I feel like Musgraves repeats herself too often on Pageant Material for me to get fully on board. That said, I can see her pulling off the win based on a combination of street cred and decent sales. I found Pain Killer to be a disappointing mess, but Little Big Town could win for many of the same reasons Musgraves could.

Still, I think this is the most likely place for the voters’ affection for Stapleton to translate into an actual win, and Traveller would be my choice without reservation. Jason Aldean and Kenny Chesney are also nominated.

Kevin: I think that Musgraves and Stapleton will appeal to similar voters, and that Little Big Town will be the obvious choice for voters in the industry who want something mainstream to vote for.  But I can picture any of those three winning. My personal favorite is the Musgraves set.

Leeann: I really love Stapleton’s voice and songs, but some of the engineering choices on his album keep me from completely loving it. With that said, I’d still be very happy for him to win. I enjoy Musgraves’ album a lot, but I still see the award going to Little Big Town.

Sam: Traveller and Pageant Material are both excellent albums, and I would love for either one to win over the mainstream stuff. My preference is toward Stapleton’s album, but I think Musgraves has a higher profile, which might help here. I guess Jason Aldean could be in the running,due to his “I guess we should throw a bone to this grumpy, mumbling, inexplicably popular singer” appeal.

Tara: Traveller resonates more with me than Pageant Material; as much as I enjoy Musgraves’ album, I find the former to be deeper and stronger in vocal performance, emotional investment and storytelling. But I think Pageant Material has done well enough commercially that, combined with Musgraves’ rising profile outside of country music, it might snag her this award.

Single of the Year

Should Win:

• Lee Brice, “I Don’t Dance”
• Kenny Chesney, “American Kids” – Leeann
• Eric Church, “Talladega”
• Sam Hunt, “Take Your Time”
• Little Big Town, “Girl Crush” – Ben, Jonathan, Kevin, Sam, Tara

Will Win:

• Lee Brice, “I Don’t Dance”
• Kenny Chesney, “American Kids”
• Eric Church, “Talladega”
• Sam Hunt, “Take Your Time”
• Little Big Town, “Girl Crush” – Ben, Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann, Sam, Tara

Jonathan: I honestly wouldn’t hate a win for “Talladega,” but it’s nearly unfathomable that “Girl Crush” would lose this.

Kevin: I don’t think there’s much of a race here. “Girl Crush” is a slam dunk.

Leeann: I’d be happy for “Girl Crush” to win and think that it will, but “American Kids” has been an earworm for me ever since I heard it.

Sam: “American Kids” was Chesney’s best song in a long, long time, but nothing’s stopping the “Girl Crush” express from rolling through.

Tara: Obvious choice and win.

Song of the Year

Should Win:

• “American Kids”; Written by Rodney Clawson, Luke Laird, and Shane McAnally
• “Girl Crush”; Written by Liz Rose, Lori McKenna, and Hillary Lindsey – Ben, Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann, Sam, Tara
• “Like a Cowboy”; Written by Randy Houser and Brice Long
• “Like a Wrecking Ball”; Written by Eric Church and Casey Beathard
• “Take Your Time”; Written by Sam Hunt, Shane McAnally, and Josh Osborne

Will Win:

• “American Kids”; Written by Rodney Clawson, Luke Laird, and Shane McAnally
• “Girl Crush”; Written by Liz Rose, Lori McKenna, and Hillary Lindsey – Ben, Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann, Sam, Tara
• “Like a Cowboy”; Written by Randy Houser and Brice Long
• “Like a Wrecking Ball”; Written by Eric Church and Casey Beathard
• “Take Your Time”; Written by Sam Hunt, Shane McAnally, and Josh Osborne

Jonathan: Had “Talladega” been nominated here, it might have proven a reasonable alternative for the voters who didn’t connect with “Girl Crush.” As is, this is probably the night’s most certain outcome.

Kevin:  I probably love the Church song the most, but I’m even more excited by the idea of Lori McKenna having a Song of the Year trophy.

Leeann: I think “Girl Crush” is the most cleverly written song of the nominees. 

Tara: With all the talk this year about female voices being heard, “Girl Crush” is a supreme example of the kind of unique, perspective-flipping female storytelling that we’re missing on country radio. Easy win.

Music Video of the Year

Should Win:

• Miranda Lambert, “Little Red Wagon”; Directed by Trey Fanjoy – Jonathan, Tara
• Little Big Town, “Girl Crush”; Directed by Karla Welch and Matthew Welch
• Maddie & Tae, “Girl in a Country Song”; Directed by TK McKamy
• Kacey Musgraves, “Biscuits”; Directed by Marc Klasfeld – Ben, Kevin
• Carrie Underwood, “Something in the Water”; Directed by Raj Kapoor

Will Win:

• Miranda Lambert, “Little Red Wagon”; Directed by Trey Fanjoy
• Little Big Town, “Girl Crush”; Directed by Karla Welch and Matthew Welch
• Maddie & Tae, “Girl in a Country Song”; Directed by TK McKamy – Ben, Kevin
• Kacey Musgraves, “Biscuits”; Directed by Marc Klasfeld – Jonathan
• Carrie Underwood, “Something in the Water”; Directed by Raj Kapoor – Tara

Jonathan: Though Musgraves added a Muppet, I thought Jenny Lewis & The Watson Twins’ video for “Rise Up With Fists!!!” from a few years back did the same Hee-Haw conceit as the “Biscuits” video even better. Still, it’s a memorable video, and I think it will edge out “Girl in a Country Song.” “Little Red Wagon” would be my pick for its oddball images and the over-the-top campiness of Lambert’s backyard swagger.

Kevin: All of these videos reflect a lot of effort and some interesting choices. I think the best clip is the Musgraves one, Muppet and all. But the Maddie & Tae send up has the kind of on-the-nose humor that is often rewarded in this category.

Tara: This is a strong set of videos. The dancer in me is enchanted by Underwood’s video, but Lambert’s video is the one I couldn’t take my eyes off of: It’s hilarious and ridiculous and reminds me of how much I love Platinum. But I think the CMA voters may use this as an opportunity to reward the show’s co-host.

Musical Event of the Year

Should Win:

• Kenny Chesney w/ Grace Potter, “Wild Child”
• Miranda Lambert feat. Little Big Town, “Smokin’ and Drinkin’”
• Willie Nelson and Merle Haggard, Django and Jimmie – Ben, Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann, Sam, Tara
• Blake Shelton w/ Ashley Monroe, “Lonely Tonight”
• Keith Urban feat. Eric Church, “Raise ’em Up”

Will Win:

• Kenny Chesney w/ Grace Potter, “Wild Child”
• Miranda Lambert feat. Little Big Town, “Smokin’ and Drinkin’” – Jonathan, Leeann, Tara
• Willie Nelson and Merle Haggard, Django and Jimmie  – Ben, Kevin, Sam
• Blake Shelton w/ Ashley Monroe, “Lonely Tonight”
• Keith Urban feat. Eric Church, “Raise ’em Up”

Ben: Don’t blow this, voters.

Jonathan: “Smokin’ and Drinkin’” really does not work for me as a collaboration because of the way the vocal tracks are layered, but the veteran artists who made hands-down the best option seriously never win in this category.

Kevin: Willie and Merle! Willie and Merle! They won Vocal Duo together in 1983, so this would be their second win together.

Leeann: I’d love for Willie and Merle to win this, but I can’t bet against the current star power of Miranda Lambert and Little Big Town, which makes me also think that Church and Urban have a big chance of winning this too.

Sam: If Willie and Merle win, it would be a nice way to introduce them to all the country singers who name-check the two in their songs.

Tara: Nelson and Haggard’s collaboration is just special. I think this may be where the CMA voters show Lambert some love, though.

Musician of the Year

Should Win:

• Sam Bush (Mandolin) – Jonathan
• Jerry Douglas (Dobro)
• Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – Ben, Kevin, Leeann, Sam
• Dann Huff (Guitar)
• Mac McAnally (Guitar)

Will Win:

• Sam Bush (Mandolin)
• Jerry Douglas (Dobro)
• Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – Sam
• Dann Huff (Guitar) – Ben
• Mac McAnally (Guitar) – Jonathan, Kevin, Leeann

Ben: I’m just going to keep picking and predicting the same people until something changes in this category.

Jonathan: I’ll pick Sam Bush as my “Should Win” until he finally does and will pick Mac McAnally as my “Will Win” until he finally doesn’t.

Kevin: Paul Franklin’s annual nomination is the only guarantee that the CMA Awards will be connected in any way to the steel guitar.  Can’t he finally win? He won’t get this reaction, but he’s even longer overdue. 

Leeann: I will never stop rooting for Franklin and the steel guitar!

Sam: Can the voters please wake up, grasp that this is an important category for group of musical talents who are overlooked far too often, and do something else other than rubber-stamp McAnally every freaking year? Nothing against Mac, but I’ve always thought of him as a songwriter first, singer second, Jimmy Buffett sideman third, and guitar player fourth.