2015 ACM Awards: Country Universe Viewer’s Guide

The fiftieth annual Academy of Country Music Awards air tonight, and Country Universe has you covered!  Here’s a rundown of all of the major categories, along with some commentary from our writers about who should win, who will, and what the nominations as a whole say about the current state of country music.

Share your thoughts about this year’s show in the comments, and check back for a list of winners when it’s all said and done.

Update: Join the CU crew on Twitter (@CountryUniverse) during the show to share your thoughts as things unfold!

Entertainer of the Year

Should Win:

• Jason Aldean
• Garth Brooks – Jonathan
• Luke Bryan – Sam
• Florida-Georgia Line
• Miranda Lambert – Ben, Kevin

Will Win:

• Jason Aldean
• Garth Brooks
• Luke Bryan
• Florida Georgia Line
• Miranda Lambert – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin

BF: I think Lambert is due, but I could get on board with a win for Brooks, whose comeback tour certainly warrants recognition. Those are about the only two possible victories I could swallow.

SG: This is fan-voted, so it really comes down to who can most mobilize their fan base. I give Miranda the nod, simply because she and her husband can both rally the troops. As to who deserves it, it’s hard to deny the impact that Luke Bryan has had on country music, love him or loathe him. He also seems like a fair entertainer, whether it’s shimmying around the stage or falling off them.

JK: Sure, he barely made a dent at radio thanks to a pair of awful singles, and the Ghost Tunes rollout was a bigger embarrassment than his Chris Gaines dress-up game. But none of the other four nominees came close to matching the spectacle and showmanship of Garth Brooks’ comeback tour, and he showed the current generation of A-listers how far they still have to go. But Lambert has been running an aggressive– and, frankly, off-putting– social media campaign for this award, with a slew of celebrities encouraging their fans and followers to vote for her. Combining a mobilized fanbase with her across-the-board support from the ACM voters, she seems likely to win.

KJC:  Lambert has reached critical and commercial peaks this year with what also happens to be her finest album to date.  I enjoyed the Brooks album and his touring stats are, as always, impressive.   Shania’s will be great, too, I’m sure.  But it’s nostalgia driving those ticket sales, not contemporary relevance, and unlike Strait on his farewell tour, it’s not pushing him into previously uncharted territory.

Male Vocalist of the Year

Should Win:

• Jason Aldean
• Dierks Bentley – Jonathan, Tara, Ben, Sam, Kevin
• Luke Bryan
• Eric Church
• Brad Paisley
• Blake Shelton

Will Win:

• Jason Aldean
• Dierks Bentley
• Luke Bryan – Jonathan, Tara, Ben, Kevin
• Eric Church – Sam
• Brad Paisley
• Blake Shelton

SG: Bentley has been one of country music’s top male vocalists for more than a decade now, as well as an excellent in-concert entertainer, so his lack of awards is baffling. He deserves at least a couple for last year’s excellent Riser album, but I think Eric Church is the person most likely to win.

JK: None of these men are particularly strong vocalists, but Bentley and Church are at least pushing themselves artistically. Of the two, I think Bentley is making the most compelling and most consistent music, and he’s long overdue for some major awards recognition. Though Shelton could ride his The Voice-enhanced popularity to another win, it seems more likely that Bryan will take this award.

TS: I tend to weave in and out of my interest in Bentley, but Riser hooked me in again last year.

KJC: The best music by a long shot was made by Dierks Bentley and Eric Church. I prefer a Bentley win because he’s been around longer and has yet to be acknowledged with major awards.  I join in the prediction of Luke Bryan as the winner.  The ACM’s have a populist history in this category, not creating as much of a distinction between Male Vocalist and Entertainer as the CMA’s do.  Garth Brooks, Kenny Chesney, Conway Twitty, and Jason Aldean only have Male Vocalist trophies from the ACM’s.  I think Bryan will join them.

Female Vocalist of the Year

Should Win:

• Brandy Clark  – Sam
• Miranda Lambert – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
• Martina McBride
• Kacey Musgraves
• Carrie Underwood

Will Win:

• Brandy Clark
• Miranda Lambert – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
• Martina McBride
• Kacey Musgraves
• Carrie Underwood

BF: And the Miranda Lambert Award goes to…

SG: Miranda Lambert will win this award until she retires, goes pop or says she supports gun control. Those are about the only scenarios where she can lose the monopoly on female vocalist airplay that she has on country radio. Still, Platinum didn’t grab me like her previous albums did, and Brandy Clark has been on a hot streak as a singer and songwriter. Clark and Musgraves would have more of a shot here if music awards were really about quality of music.

JK: I’m thrilled that she was nominated, but I’d be more inclined to support Clark here if she had been more active during the eligibility period. And I’ve honestly just not been all that impressed by Musgraves beyond “Follow Your Arrow,” though I hope an artist like her can continue to make inroads at country radio. But this is Lambert’s award to lose. She’s been over-recognized in this category– her Four the Record era represents her weakest work, and it spanned three awards cycles– and she released the two worst tracks on Platinum as the album’s first singles. But the album itself finds Lambert close to the top of her game. She’s won previously when she shouldn’t have, but she deserves the award this year.

KJC: Amazingly, Miranda Lambert is the only one of the five nominees to have released a country studio album this year.  (Underwood released a hits compilation, McBride a collection of pop and soul covers, and the other two, no album at all.)   Lambert’s album is also her best to date.  I’m calling it now that if Underwood releases a new album this year that is half as good as the two singles on her hits compilation, she’ll be the one I’m rooting for this time next year.

Vocal Duo of the Year

Should Win:

• Brothers Osborne
• Dan + Shay
• Florida Georgia Line – Sam
• Maddie & Tae – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
• The Swon Brothers

Will Win:

• Brothers Osborne
• Dan + Shay
• Florida Georgia Line – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin
• Maddie & Tae
• The Swon Brothers

SG: A FLAGA song on my radio is as welcome to me as a hemorrhoid, but they’re so far ahead of the competition that there really is no competition. Country music’s line of succession for vocal duos is pretty clear. The Judds dominated for years until Brooks & Dunn came along, and were unchallenged for a decade until Sugarland became a duo. Now, Florida Georgia Line has a death grip on this category and won’t let go until some other duo pops up. Looking at the other nominees, this may take a few years.

JK: I’m still not entirely sold on Maddie & Tae, but I’m even less sold on the other four.

KJC: Florida Georgia Line still seem like the de facto winners in this category.  But the ACM’s have surprised before.  They were the first to award Brooks & Dunn over the Judds, and have given this trophy to Thompson Square as many times as to Sugarland.  Maybe while voters are reflexively checking off Lambert’s name, they’ll notice the incongruity of celebrating a strong woman and voting for an act that proves the case made by “Girl in a Country Song”, and just choose the singers of that hit, instead.

Vocal Group of the Year

Should Win:

• The Band Perry
• Lady Antebellum
• Little Big Town – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin
• Rascal Flatts
• Zac Brown Band

Will Win:

• The Band Perry
• Lady Antebellum
• Little Big Town – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin
• Rascal Flatts
• Zac Brown Band

SG: Zac Brown Band normally is the default “deserves to win” band for me, but they’ve been in silent mode for the last year, so Little Big Town gets my nod. Can’t wait for the new ZBB album to come along, though.

JK: Give or take “Sober,” Little Big Town’s most consistently great work came about a decade ago, and Pain Killer is a significant step down from Tornado. But based upon what each of these nominees released in the eligibility period, they’d get my vote on the strength of “Girl Crush” alone. I suspect I’ll be firmly back in Zac Brown Band’s corner come CMA time.

KJC: I like the new LBT album and that they always do something different each time out.  This would only be their second win, and I think they’ve earned a return trip to the podium more than last year’s winner, the Band Perry.  If Zac Brown Band had been active last year, they’d be my pick, so expect me to be rooting for them this time next year.  They’re the only nominee that hasn’t won; the other four have twelve trophies between them.

New Artist of the Year

Should Win:

• Sam Hunt
• Thomas Rhett – Kevin
• Cole Swindell

Will Win:

• Sam Hunt – Sam, Kevin
• Thomas Rhett – Jonathan, Ben
• Cole Swindell

BF: Seriously?

SG: You gotta be #&*$%)! kidding me.

JK: Absolutely not.

KJC:  Okay, I’ll bite.  I was about to put my name next to Cole Swindell for “Should Win”, because I thought to myself, “Didn’t I kinda like his album last year?”  Then I checked my iTunes folder and, no. That was Jon Pardi.   He’s not nominated.

Thomas Rhett has put out a single that I’ve liked, however.  (“Beer with Jesus.”)   Hunt for the win because he’s got a big hit out right now.

Album of the Year

Should Win:

• Jason Aldean, Old Boots, New Dirt
• Dierks Bentley, Riser – Sam
• Eric Church, The Outsiders
• Miranda Lambert, Platinum – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
• Little Big Town, Pain Killer

Will Win:

• Jason Aldean, Old Boots, New Dirt – Sam
• Dierks Bentley, Riser
• Eric Church, The Outsiders
• Miranda Lambert, Platinum – Jonathan, Kevin
• Little Big Town, Pain Killer

SG: You have four good-to-excellent albums, and Jason Aldean’s Old Boots, New Dirt. Am I jaded enough to think that the “quality” vote gets diluted four ways, leaving a clear win for the worst album in the category? Yes. Yes I am.

JK:It’s still only her second-or-third best album, but Platinum is the best of the five albums nominated here and will make for a deserving winner. Aldean is completely out of his depth in this company, and Pain Killer is scattershot and overproduced. If there’s an upset, this could be the voters’ best opportunity to recognize either Church or Bentley. Church’s album takes more risks and misfires more often, but I wouldn’t be too mad if the thoughtful and well-crafted Riser were to surprise here.

KJC: Almost as good as the Grammy lineup two months ago.  This time, though, Brandy Clark’s not in the running.  So for me, it’s a race between Lambert and Church, who made my top two albums of 2014.  Happy with a win for either, with a slight edge for Lambert.  I’m assuming she’ll win, as she has for her previous three studio albums.  If she does, she joins Taylor Swift’s Fearless and the Dixie Chicks’ Fly among albums that have won all three industry awards for Best Country Album.

Single of the Year

Should Win:

• Dierks Bentley, “Drunk on a Plane” – Jonathan, Sam, Kevin
• Lee Brice, “I Don’t Dance”
• Kenny Chesney, “American Kids”
• Florida Georgia Line, “Dirt”
• Miranda Lambert, “Automatic”

Will Win:

• Dierks Bentley, “Drunk on a Plane” – Kevin
• Lee Brice, “I Don’t Dance”
• Kenny Chesney, “American Kids”
• Florida Georgia Line, “Dirt” – Sam
• Miranda Lambert, “Automatic” – Jonathan, Ben

BF: I don’t love any of these singles, but I don’t really see anyone challenging Lambert for this.

SG: “Dirt” is widely recognized as Florida Georgia Line’s best ever single, but that’s damning with faint praise. “Drunk on a Plane” was fun, catchy and clever, but I think that either the Lambert/Shelton Machine rolls on, or FLAGA gets rewarded for managing to record a song that didn’t include either a drug reference or a misogynistic view toward women.

JK: Without a clear challenger across the ballot, it seems likely that Miranda could just run the table. A win for the pedestrian and bafflingly overpraised “Dirt” would exemplify just how low the bar for perceived quality has been reset.

KJC: Seems like the obvious place to acknowledge Dierks Bentley.

Song of the Year

Should Win:

• “American Kids,”  Rodney Clawson, Luke Laird, and Shane McAnally (Kenny Chesney)
• “Automatic,” Nicole Gallyon, Natalie Hemby, and Miranda Lambert (Miranda Lambert)
• “Drink a Beer,” Jim Beavers and Chris Stapelton (Luke Bryan)
• “Follow Your Arrow,” Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, and Kacey Musgraves (Kacey Musgraves) – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin
• “Give Me Back My Hometown,” Eric Church and Luke Laird (Eric Church)
• “I Hold On,” Dierks Bentley and Brett James (Dierks Bentley)

Will Win:

• “American Kids,”  Rodney Clawson, Luke Laird, and Shane McAnally (Kenny Chesney)
• “Automatic,” Nicole Gallyon, Natalie Hemby, and Miranda Lambert (Miranda Lambert) – Jonathan, Ben, Sam
• “Drink a Beer,” Jim Beavers and Chris Stapelton (Luke Bryan)
• “Follow Your Arrow,” Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, and Kacey Musgraves (Kacey Musgraves) – Kevin
• “Give Me Back My Hometown,” Eric Church and Luke Laird (Eric Church)
• “I Hold On,” Dierks Bentley and Brett James (Dierks Bentley)

JK: Since the ACMs have, historically, been more oriented toward radio than have the CMAs, it’s hard to imagine that “Follow Your Arrow” will repeat the surprise victory it pulled off in this category last fall. Still, it would get my vote for its jaunty sing-along melody and well-turned phrases. “I Hold On,” which mines nostalgia from real reflection on personal experiences, is the only other nominee that I could stomach winning an award for its songwriting. But if Miranda could win for “Over You,” which is still far and away her worst song, there’s no reason to doubt that she’ll win for the not-much-better “Automatic.”

KJC: I think the wave of acclaim for “Follow Your Arrow” will carry it to a win, but watch out for “Drink a Beer.”   There’s a very high body count among previous winners in this category.

Music Video of the Year

Should Win:

• Dierks Bentley, “Drunk on a Plane” – Jonathan, Sam
• Glen Campbell, “I’m Not Gonna Miss You”
• Kenny Chesney, “American Kids”
• Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood, “Somethin’ Bad” – Kevin
• Keith Urban, “Cop Car”

Will Win:

• Dierks Bentley, “Drunk on a Plane”
• Glen Campbell, “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” – Jonathan, Sam
• Kenny Chesney, “American Kids”
• Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood, “Somethin’ Bad” – Kevin
• Keith Urban, “Cop Car”

SG: It’s Glen Campbell, people! Give the man his award and thank him for an excellent career.

JK: Flip a coin between the fun but not-terribly-original videos for “Drunk on a Plane” and “Somethin’ Bad” for a more deserving winner, I guess. But the video for Campbell’s Grammy-winning and Oscar-nominated song is the obvious choice for who will win.

KJC: Lambert’s won this twice and Underwood’s won it once.  Now they’ve made a video together, and a good one, at that.

Vocal Event of the Year

Should Win:

• The Cadillac Three with Florida Georgia Line, Dierks Bentley, and Mike Eli, “The South”
• Florida Georgia Line with Luke Bryan, “This is How We Roll”
• Miranda Lambert with Carrie Underwood, “Somethin’ Bad”
• Tim McGraw with Faith Hill, “Meanwhile Back at Mama’s” – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin
• Blake Shelton with Ashley Monroe, “Lonely Tonight”

Will Win:

• The Cadillac Three with Florida Georgia Line, Dierks Bentley, and Mike Eli, “The South”
• Florida Georgia Line with Luke Bryan, “This is How We Roll” – Sam
• Miranda Lambert with Carrie Underwood, “Somethin’ Bad” – Kevin
• Tim McGraw with Faith Hill, “Meanwhile, Back at Mama’s”
• Blake Shelton with Ashley Monroe, “Lonely Tonight” – Jonathan, Ben

BF: Just once, I would like to see Ashley Monroe and/or the Pistol Annies receive an ACM nomination that has nothing to do with Blake Shelton.

SG: There’s a chance to give an award to the two most popular women in country music or three bros. You know the saying: “Bros before artistically and commercially superior female artists.”

JK: These at least feel a bit more like true collaborations than many of the nominees over the past several years, which have increasingly just amounted to, “Famous Person Singing Faint Harmony In The Chorus.” I won’t object to Ashley Monroe winning an ACM award, but I’ll just pretend it’s a retroactive award for the Pistol Annies.

KJC: So many previous winners in this category that it’s difficult to handicap.  My heart belongs to the McGraw and Hill collaboration, but Lambert and Underwood are the highest-wattage pairing this year, and the ACM’s tend to go in that direction.