2014 Grammy Awards: Staff Picks & Predictions

The Country Universe staff has picked and predicted the 2014 Grammy Awards below, strange bunch that they are. Chime in with your thoughts, and catch the show on Sunday at 7 p.m. CST.

Album of the Year

Should Win:

• Sara Bareilles, The Blessed Unrest
• Daft Punk, Random Access Memories  – Kevin
• Kendrick Lamar, good kid m.A.A.d. city – Jonathan
• Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, The Heist
• Taylor Swift, Red

Will Win:

• Sara Bareilles, The Blessed Unrest
• Daft Punk, Random Access Memories  – Kevin, Jonathan
• Kendrick Lamar, good kid m.A.A.d. city
• Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, The Heist
• Taylor Swift, Red

Kevin: With electronic music so mainstream now, it would be wise and timely for NARAS to acknowledge the excellent comeback of one of its pioneers, especially as the year’s best country albums (Brandy Clark, Kacey Musgraves, Ashley Monroe, etc.) and the year’s best rap album (Kanye West) didn’t score nominations in the top category.

Jonathan: Lamar and Daft Punk would both be worthy winners of an award that rarely seems to go to one. Hip-hop and R&B have notoriously struggled in the general field in recent years, so Daft Punk’s cachet with the rock contingent should give them the edge over Swift, who didn’t score the across-the-board support many were expecting from her this year. If the voters are feeling especially timid, though, watch out for “Brave” yelper Bareilles as a spoiler.

Record of the Year

Should Win:

• “Blurred Lines” – Robin Thicke featuring T.I. and Pharrell Williams
• “Get Lucky” – Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams – Kevin, Jonathan, Tara
• “Locked Out of Heaven” – Bruno Mars
• “Radioactive” – Imagine Dragons
• “Royals” – Lorde – Dan

Will Win:

• “Blurred Lines” – Robin Thicke featuring T.I. and Pharrell Williams – Tara
• “Get Lucky” – Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams
• “Locked Out of Heaven” – Bruno Mars – Kevin, Jonathan, Ben
• “Radioactive” – Imagine Dragons
• “Royals” – Lorde – Dan

Kevin:  “Get Lucky” was retro and modern at the same time, featuring the charismatic Williams.  That guy makes everything better.  I’m guessing Mars will get it because he’s the most established and arguably is overdue for a big win.

Dan: “Royals” was the most refreshing to me. Winner feels like a real toss-up, though.

Jonathan: Prevailing logic as to why hip-hop tracks have fared so poorly in this category is that NARAS voters are still hell-bent on rewarding live instrumentation, so it’s hard to imagine something as spare as “Royals” winning, even if it’s the most distinctive choice. “Get Lucky” would get my vote, but look for Bruno Mars to head off to his Super Bowl Halftime gig with some new hardware in hand to reward his Police homage.

Tara: Lots of atmospheric tunes here. “Get Lucky” seems like the one that will feel no less groovy in ten years time. I wouldn’t put any money on it, but I could see the voters ignoring controversy and rewarding the biggest hit of the year.

Song of the Year

Should Win:

• “Just Give Me a Reason”  – Jeff Bhasker, P!nk, and Nate Reuss – Kevin, Ben
• “Locked out of Heaven” – Phillip Lawrence, Ari Levine, and Bruno Mars
• “Roar” – Lukasz Gottwald, Max Martin, Bonnie McKee, Katy Perry, and Henry Walter
• “Royals” – Joel Little and Lorde – Jonathan
• “Same Love” – Ben Haggerty, Mary Lambert, Ryan Lewis, and Curtis Mayfield – Dan, Tara

Will Win:

• “Just Give Me a Reason”  – Jeff Bhasker, P!nk, and Nate Reuss – Kevin, Ben, Dan
• “Locked out of Heaven” – Phillip Lawrence, Ari Levine, and Bruno Mars
• “Roar” – Lukasz Gottwald, Max Martin, Bonnie McKee, Katy Perry, and Henry Walter
• “Royals” – Joel Little and Lorde 
  
• “Same Love” – Ben Haggerty, Mary Lambert, Ryan Lewis, and Curtis Mayfield – Jonathan, Tara

Kevin: P!nk is long overdue for a top tier award, and her co-write with previous winner Nate Reuss was, in my opinion, the best duet in a year chock full of ‘em.

Dan: The Macklemore & Ryan Lewis composition is somehow the most personal of the group even as it makes the biggest, broadest statement. And the climactic third verse still gives me chills.

Jonathan: I don’t care that Kacey Musgraves is a fan of hers: Perry’s nomination is indefensible, with four adults credited on a song that rhymes “zero” with “hero” and that allows pop music’s least-capable vocalist to scream a series of self-help cliches. The broad, even-in-the-flyover-states popularity of “Same Love,” though, gives the voters a safe opportunity to make a political statement and to recognize one of the year’s breakthrough acts.

Tara: It’s a toss-up between “Royals” and “Same Love” for me in terms of substance and purposeful songwriting, but I can’t ignore the chills I also get listening to the latter. I agree with Jonathan that this is a win-win way for the voters to make a statement.

Best New Artist

Should Win:

• James Blake
• Kendrick Lamar – Jonathan
• Macklemore & Ryan Lewis – Dan
• Kacey Musgraves – Kevin, Ben, Tara
• Ed Sheeran

Will Win:

• James Blake
• Kendrick Lamar 
  
• Macklemore & Ryan Lewis – Dan, Kevin, Tara
• Kacey Musgraves – Jonathan, Ben
• Ed Sheeran

Kevin: Gotta root for the home team.  I think Macklemore & Lewis  will win, though.

Dan: For once, this category is hot across the board; you could make a great argument for any of these folks. Personally, I find Macklemore & Ryan Lewis to be the most exciting.

Ben:  I don’t always gravitate toward the country-affiliated New Artist nominee, but then again it’s rare for me to be so invested in a country newcomer’s artistry as I am with Musgraves. To see her win would make my heart happy.

Jonathan: Lamar is making the most compelling music of this lot, but this category’s history dictates that it’s Musgraves’ award to lose. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis pose a real threat, but being the only woman nominated plays in Musgraves’ favor.

Tara: It’s hard to tell if Musgraves’ profile outside of the country sphere is big enough to nab her this one, but I’d be happy if it did. I hope she keeps the face in check if it doesn’t, though.

Best Country Album

Should Win:

• Jason Aldean, Night Train
• Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
• Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – Dan, Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Sam, Tara
• Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story
• Taylor Swift, Red

Will Win:

• Jason Aldean, Night Train
• Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
• Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park
• Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story – Sam
• Taylor Swift, Red – Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Tara

Kevin:  Don’t see how Taylor doesn’t win, though Musgraves made the best album by a decent margin, regardless of how country any of ‘em are.

Dan: Here’s the most logical place to reward Musgraves, though I guess Red’s nomination in the general Album of the Year field makes it the frontrunner in this category. And that’s fine; whatever. I’ve been hoping for Swift’s albums to be grouped under “Pop” at the Grammys since Fearless. It ain’t gonna happen.

Ben:  Should Win – easy choice. Will Win – also an easy choice.

Sam: Just to be contrary, I think Shelton’s built up enough recognition with his “The Voice” gig that he has name recognition from voters who know next to nothing about country music. The fact that it was a terrible, terrible album doesn’t really matter.

Jonathan: No, Red shouldn’t be nominated in the Country field, so I wouldn’t vote for it on principle, even though its best tracks are far and away the strongest material in this line-up. NARAS has no qualms about rewarding pop crossover albums here, so it would be a huge upset were Swift to lose. When we were all prepping our ballots for our year-end countdowns, I had Musgraves’ album at #38. It’s good and I certainly understand why it has as many fans as it does, but I’m just not as bullish on it as others seem to be. Still, it would be my personal choice from this paltry line-up, since Aldean’s, McGraw’s, and Shelton’s albums ranged from pedestrian to downright unlistenable.

Tara: Seems like an easy Swift win, but I get where Sam’s head is at re: Shelton. There’s no question Musgraves made the best music, though, and what a shame she’s not surrounded by her peers who made even better music.

Best Country Solo Performance

Should Win:

• Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
• Hunter Hayes, “I Want Crazy”
• Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Dan, Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Sam, Tara
• Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
• Blake Shelton, “Mine Would Be You”

Will Win:

• Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
• Hunter Hayes, “I Want Crazy”
• Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Dan, Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Sam, Tara
• Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
• Blake Shelton, “Mine Would Be You”

Kevin:  Lambert is the only female and the only previous winner.  I’d be shocked if she lost.

Ben:  To me, Lambert’s performance alone claims the distinction of making an already-great song even better.

Sam: This could be one of those rare occasions where the best nominee actually wins a Grammy. I think Hunter Hayes is a long shot, as most Grammy voters are not teenaged girls.

Jonathan: What Kevin said. Also, he’s a talented instrumentalist, but the Grammy voters’ fascination with Hunter Hayes is baffling.

Tara: Lambert’s is the most distinct and impactful performance here, but I’ll throw in my defense of Hayes’ “I Want Crazy,” a song and vocal that’s as breathlessly exuberant as Keith Urban’s best work.

Best Country Duo/Group Performance

Should Win:

• The Civil Wars, “From This Valley”
• Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill, “Don’t Rush”
• Little Big Town, “Your Side of the Bed” – Jonathan
• Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
• Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton, “You Can’t Make Old Friends” – Kevin, Ben, Tara

Will Win:

• The Civil Wars, “From This Valley”
• Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill, “Don’t Rush”
• Little Big Town, “Your Side of the Bed” 
  
• Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – Kevin, Ben, Tara
• Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton, “You Can’t Make Old Friends” – Jonathan, Sam

Kevin: The high octane collaboration of McGraw/Swift/Urban has been unstoppable thus far.  Kudos to NARAS for noticing Rogers & Parton’s beautiful work, their best together since “Islands in the Stream.”

Ben: “You Can’t Make Old Friends” is enough to give many a longtime country music lover warm fuzzies, but the commercial clout of “Highway Don’t Care” may be too much to beat.

Sam: If you’re a Grammy voter and have to decide on a zillion categories, do you take the time to sit and listen to each nominee, or do you skim over the names and pick the ones you’re most familiar with? Kenny and Dolly for the win.

Jonathan: One of the strongest sets of nominees anywhere on the Grammy ballot this year. Little Big Town would get my vote so that they have a win for something besides “Pontoon” to their credit, but I think NARAS’ older voters will be swayed by the effortless charm of the Rogers and Parton duet.

Tara: I don’t love any of these except for the Rogers and Parton collaboration, as much as I wanted to embrace “Don’t Rush” (Kelly Clarkson! Vince Gill!). I think the middle-of-the-road McGraw / Swift / Urban song will win out, but here’s to hoping the voters act on warm fuzzies.

Best Country Song

Should Win:

• “Begin Again” – Taylor Swift
• “I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, and Jimmy Yeary
• “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, and Kacey Musgraves – Kevin, Jonathan, Sam, Tara
• “Merry Go ‘Round” – Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves, and Josh Osborne – Ben
  
• “Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Deric Ruttan

Will Win:

• “Begin Again” – Taylor Swift – Jonathan, Sam
• “I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, and Jimmy Yeary
• “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, and Kacey Musgraves – Kevin, Tara
• “Merry Go ‘Round” – Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves, and Josh Osborne – Ben
• “Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Deric Ruttan

Kevin:  Gotta root for the Brandy Clark co-write, which is conveniently the best composition anyway.  Still, I think  voters will use this category to acknowledge Musgraves for writing her own hit instead of Miranda’s.

Ben:  I seem to be in the minority here, but I actually consider “Merry Go ‘Round” to be the finer of the two Musgraves co-writes – which is not to say that I don’t adore “Mama’s Broken Heart” or that I wouldn’t be thrilled to see Brandy Clark also gain a mantle decoration. This would seem a comfortable place for voters to acknowledge Musgraves – as well as a likely consolation prize should she lose Best New Artist – and like Kevin, I expect it will be for the hit she performed as well as wrote.

Sam: I’d just like to point out that this is an incredibly strong group of nominees and shows there is some substance to country music once you weed out all the tailgate songs.

Jonathan: Things could play out here in a similar fashion to the CMAs, with vote-splitting among the multiple nominations for Musgraves, McAnally, Alexander, and Harrington. That worked to the latter pair’s advantage at the CMAs, where “I Drive Your Truck” pulled off a surprise win, but Shelton’s powerballad could siphon votes from Brice’s hit this time. As much as I love the idea of Brandy Clark as a Grammy winner, I think the various vote-splits will allow one of Swift’s best-written songs to win.

Tara: As strong as Lambert’s spitfire performance is, I’d argue that the bones of “Mama’s Broken Heart” are even stronger. I’ve never been able to connect with “Merry Go Round” the way others have, but agree this is likely where the voters will single Musgraves out.

Best American Roots Song

Should Win:

• “Build Me Up From Bones” – Sarah Jarosz – Jonathan
• “Invisible” – Steve Earle
• “Keep Your Dirty Lights On” – Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott – Kevin
• “Love Has Come From You” – Edie Brickell and Steve Martin
• “Shrimp Po-Boy, Dressed” – Allen Touissant

Will Win:

• “Build Me Up From Bones” – Sarah Jarosz 
  
• “Invisible” – Steve Earle
• “Keep Your Dirty Lights On” – Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott
• “Love Has Come From You” – Edie Brickell and Steve Martin- Kevin, Jonathan
• “Shrimp Po-Boy, Dressed” – Allen Touissant

Kevin:  Can voters resist Steve Martin? If they do, I hope it’s to acknowledge again the unique talents of Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott.  They are so good together.

Jonathan: Jarosz draws favorable comparisons to Alison Krauss, and, if ever there were a surefire way to appeal to Grammy voters, that would be it. She’d get my vote for the exceptional title track from her third album, though, like Kevin, I’m a big fan of O’Brien’s and Scott’s work together. Martin’s charm and name recognition are likely to give his duet with erstwhile New Bohemian Brickell the edge here.

Best Americana Album

Should Win:

• Emmylou Harris and Rodney Crowell, Old Yellow Moon – Kevin, Jonathan, Sam
• Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Love Has Come For You
• Buddy Miller and Jim Lauderdale, Buddy and Jim
• Mavis Staples, One True Vine
• Allen Touissant, Songbook

Will Win:

• Emmylou Harris and Rodney Crowell, Old Yellow Moon – Kevin, Ben
• Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Love Has Come For You – Jonathan
• Buddy Miller and Jim Lauderdale, Buddy and Jim
• Mavis Staples, One True Vine
• Allen Touissant, Songbook – Sam

Kevin:  Martin & Brickell might be the most logical choice, but in a category stacked with veterans, Harris & Crowell must be tempting to voters who are long time fans of both.

Sam: The fact that Jason Isbell wasn’t nominated here shows that Americana music has a long way to go before Grammy voters stop using it at the place where all veteran singer/songwriters end up. As for this year, Allen Touissant is older and has past Grammy love, so my money is on him.

Jonathan: The strongest, most vital year for Americana music in a decade is rewarded with a staid slate of nominees. Old Yellow Moon is the obvious standout and could very well win, but I think Martin’s well-received album with Brickell has the edge based on Martin’s celebrity.

Best Bluegrass Album

Should Win:

• The Boxcars, It’s Just a Road
• Dailey & Vincent, Brothers of the Highway – Jonathan
• Della Mae, This World Oft Can Be
• James King, Three Chords and the Truth
• Del McCoury Band, The Streets of Baltimore

Will Win:

• The Boxcars, It’s Just a Road
• Dailey & Vincent, Brothers of the Highway
• Della Mae, This World Oft Can Be
• James King, Three Chords and the Truth
• Del McCoury Band, The Streets of Baltimore – Kevin, Jonathan, Ben

Kevin: Haven’t heard these albums enough to have a personal favorite, but I think the Del McCoury Band’s name recognition will power it to a win.

Jonathan: Both the Del McCoury Band and Dailey & Vincent are nominated for some of their very best work, and either would be a richly deserving winner. Della Mae have a fairly vocal fanbase, but it isn’t clear if that fanbase overlaps with the Grammy voter bloc enough to unseat one of the two bigger-name acts.

Best Folk Album

Should Win:

• Guy Clark, My Favorite Picture of You – Kevin, Ben
• The Greencards, Sweetheart of the Sun
• Sarah Jarosz, Build Me Up From Bones – Jonathan
• The Milk Carton Kids, The Ash & Clay
• Various Artists, They all Played for Us: Arhoolie Records 50th Anniversary Celebration

Will Win:

• Guy Clark, My Favorite Picture of You – Kevin, Ben, Jonathan
• The Greencards, Sweetheart of the Sun
• Sarah Jarosz, Build Me Up From Bones
• The Milk Carton Kids, The Ash & Clay
• Various Artists, They all Played for Us: Arhoolie Records 50th Anniversary Celebration

Kevin: Sentimental favorite who also put out a great album? How can they deny Guy Clark?

Jonathan: I’m tempted to pick the Arhoolie Records without having heard it, simply because it just seems like something the idiosyncratic Grammys would go for. Clark is a safer bet for his beautifully observed album, while the ascendant Jarosz would get my vote for her career-best work.