Grammy Awards 2012: Staff Picks & Predictions

Should Win

• Adele, 21 –Dan, Kevin, Ben, Tara, Sam
• Foo Fighters, Wasting Light
• Lady Gaga, Born this Way
• Bruno Mars, Doo-Wops & Hooligans
• Rihanna, Loud

Will Win

• Adele, 21 – Dan, Kevin, Ben, Tara, Sam
• Foo Fighters, Wasting Light
• Lady Gaga, Born this Way
• Bruno Mars, Doo-Wops & Hooligans
• Rihanna, Loud

Ben: The dramatic build-up nature, the simmering intensity, the all-guns-blazing chorus…“Rolling In the Deep” is all but untouchable.

Tara: As rousing a Top 40 hit as we’ve heard in years. I think we all know Adele will sweep.

Sam: I’m a Mumford & Sons fan, but it’s hard to top “Rolling in the Deep.” Anyone who votes for a Katy Perry song in this category should lose their Grammy voting rights permanently.

Dan: Long after it became overplayed, it was still more refreshing to me than everything else on the radio.

Kevin:  Adele cut through the hype by being the best singer and the best songwriter.  Amazing, isn’t it?

Song of the Year

• “All of the Lights” – Jeff Bhasker, Malik Jones, Warren Trotter & Kanye West – Dan
• “The Cave” – Ted Dwane, Ben Lovett, Marcus Mumford & Country Winston
• “Grenade” – Brody Brown, Claude Kelly, Philip Lawrence, Ari Levine, Bruno Mars & Andrew Wyatt
• “Holocene” – Justin Vernon
• “Rolling in the Deep” – Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth – Kevin, Ben, Tara

Will Win

• “All of the Lights” – Jeff Bhasker, Malik Jones, Warren Trotter & Kanye West
• “The Cave” – Ted Dwane, Ben Lovett, Marcus Mumford & Country Winston
• “Grenade” – Brody Brown, Claude Kelly, Philip Lawrence, Ari Levine, Bruno Mars & Andrew Wyatt
• “Holocene” – Justin Vernon
• “Rolling in the Deep” – Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth – Dan, Kevin, Ben, Tara

Tara: “Rolling in the Deep” shines more as a record than as a composition, but it’s still memorable enough to nab this award, and I think it will.

Dan: Here’s where I’d love to see some variation. “All of the Lights” is a poetic, layered micro-drama. Plus, from a songwriting standpoint, I’ve never fully gotten over how “Rolling in the Deep” cribs its chorus from Gnarls Barkley’s “Crazy.”

Kevin:  The British slang that the song is built around doesn’t stop “Rolling” from being the most universal of the five compositions. 

Best New Artist

Should Win

• The Band Perry – Sam
• Bon Iver
• J. Cole – Tara
• Nicki Minaj – Dan, Kevin
• Skrillex

Will Win

• The Band Perry – Sam
• Bon Iver – Dan, Kevin, Tara
• J. Cole
• Nicki Minaj
• Skrillex

Tara: Bon Iver fits the Grammy mold the best. Personally, I’m not married to any of these acts, but I guess J. Cole piques my interest the most right now. This is totally one of those picks I’m going to regret in six months…

Sam: I think this one could be an upset win for the country world. “If I Die Young” was such an unexpected crossover hit, and I think it had more resonance than most other singles from the eligibility period. Plus the Band Perry is cuter than a basket full of puppies, which can only help them.

Dan: I think Bon Iver is the most fully realized act, and predict the band’s Song and Record nods will tip Grammy voters to vote for them like Adele’s did a few years ago. But Minaj’s potential excites me the most, and I had “Super Bass” on loop last year.

Kevin:  Minaj is the most refreshing of the five, though Bon Iver’s the most Grammy-friendly.

Best Country Solo Performance 

Should Win

• Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem”
• Martina McBride, “I’m Gonna Love You Through It”
• Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee”
• Taylor Swift, “Mean” – Dan, Kevin, Jonathan, Ben, Tara, Leeann, Sam
• Carrie Underwood, “Mama’s Song”

Will Win

• Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem” – Sam
• Martina McBride, “I’m Gonna Love You Through It”
• Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee”
• Taylor Swift, “Mean” – Dan, Kevin, Jonathan, Ben, Tara, Leeann
• Carrie Underwood, “Mama’s Song”

Ben: Swift outclasses the competition by miles.

Jonathan: A depressing line-up here, really. Swift’s single and performance are far and away the strongest of the five nominees, but she didn’t land the general field nominations that many people were expecting her to receive, so I do wonder if her support runs as deep this year as it did during the Fearless juggernaut. If she loses this one, I think it will be to the red-hot-but-I-don’t-get-it-at-all Aldean.

Tara: Embarrassing line-up. “Mean” is the only one that even comes close to Grammy worthy. I think Swift still has the voters on her side, but I could also see Aldean edging her out.

Sam: “Honey Bee?” “Dirt Road Anthem?” Really, Grammy voters? I guess we should be lucky they managed to put one good song in the category, even if it was probably an accident. However, I think voters are going to take a year off on the Swift love and give it to Aldean, because it’s the least country-sounding song in the category.

Dan: I could see Shelton’s familiarity prompting a win here, but suspect Grammy voters are still in Swift’s corner.

Kevin:  They should just make the genre categories line up perfectly with the big three. This is really a race for Country Record of the Year anyway.  Swift’s entry is the best.

Leeann: All of the songs on this are vanilla except for the Swift song, both in lyrics and execution. This is the inarguable standout song.

Best Country Duo / Group Performance

Should Win

• Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay”
• Kenny Chesney with Grace Potter, “You and Tequila” – Kevin, Leeann
• The Civil Wars, “Barton Hollow” –  Dan, Jonathan, Ben, Tara, Sam
• Thompson Square, “Are You Gonna Kiss Me or Not”

Will Win

• Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay” –  Dan, Jonathan, Ben, Tara, Leeann, Sam
• Kenny Chesney with Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
• The Civil Wars, “Barton Hollow” – Kevin
• Thompson Square, “Are You Gonna Kiss Me or Not”

Ben: It’s a super tough call for me to choose between The Civil Wars and Chesney and Potter.  As much as I adore “You and Tequila,” I’m finally settling on The Civil Wars as my pick.  However, I expect that Aldean and Clarkson will likely triumph over both.

Jonathan: Had the Civil Wars scored the Best New Artist nomination that they seemed primed for, I would be more bullish on their chances here. They’re still the only of the four nominees I’d even consider voting for, but Clarkson is the only proven Grammy commodity in this lot, and this is probably the least credibility-straining place to recognize Aldean.

Tara: Confession: I don’t really see the sparkle that others see in “You and Tequila.” The swampy “Barton Hollow” has my heart, but I think Aldean & Clarkson will have the Grammy voters’ hearts. And I’m always OK with a little K. Clarkson love.

Sam: “Barton Hollow” kicks the ass of every other song on the list, including the excellent Chesney/Potter collaboration, and if Grammy voters actually listened to the songs they vote for, it would probably win. However, the Aldean/Clarkson screamfest has the benefit of Kelly Clarkson’s name recognition and Aldean’s current popularity.

Dan: The Civil Wars wail like mad dogs on their track. But Aldean and Clarkson are both having a moment right now.

Kevin:  The Civil Wars seem like Grammy catnip.

Leeann: My vote goes for the Chesney/Potter collaboration or The Civil Wars song, but I won’t be surprised if it goes to the powerhouse duet of Aldean and Clarkson based on crossover appeal. I hope, however, that  it turns out that I’m not giving the Grammy voters enough credit.

Best Country Song

Should Win

• “Are You Gonna Kiss Me or Not” – Jim Collins & David Lee Murphy
• “God Gave Me You” – Dave Barnes
• “Just Fishin’” – Casey Beathard, Monty Criswell & Ed Hill
• “Mean” – Taylor Swift –  Dan, Ben, Tara, Sam
• “Threaten Me With Heaven” – Vince Gill, Amy Grant, Will Owsley & Dillon O’Brian –  Kevin, Jonathan, Leeann
• “You and Tequila” – Matraca Berg & Deana Carter

Will Win

• “Are You Gonna Kiss Me or Not” – Jim Collins & David Lee Murphy
• “God Gave Me You” – Dave Barnes
• “Just Fishin’” – Casey Beathard, Monty Criswell & Ed Hill
• “Mean” – Taylor Swift –  Dan, Kevin, Jonathan, Ben, Tara, Leeann
• “Threaten Me With Heaven” – Vince Gill, Amy Grant, Will Owsley & Dillon O’Brian – Sam
• “You and Tequila” – Matraca Berg & Deana Carter

Ben: Gill’s “Threaten Me with Heaven” is mature and beautifully written, but ultimately, my heart still belongs to “Mean.”

Jonathan: Gill has a real shot at this because it’s the Grammys so Gill always has a real shot at anything he’s nominated for. He’d be a worthy winner here, too, as would “You and Tequila” or the more likely winner, “Mean.”

Tara: I wrestle with this one, but I think the freshness of “Mean” gives it an edge over Gill’s track for me. Gill could easily take this given he’s Grammy royalty, but I’ll predict the voters will stick with Swift.

Sam: It’s Vince Gill in a Grammy category. That’s why.

Dan: I’d be happy with any of those last three. Honestly, I even half-like “Just Fishin’” and “God Gave Me You” as songs.

Kevin:  Can’t believe that Gill’s composition got a nod.  I like Swift’s record the most, but as a song, “Threaten Me With Heaven” is jaw-droppingly good.

Leeann: I’d love to see Vince win another grammy, but I won’t be surprised  or too disappointed if Swift takes this one.

Best Country Album

Should Win

• Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party
• Eric Church, Chief  – Jonathan, Tara, Leeann
• Lady Antebellum, Own the Night
• Blake Shelton, Red River Blue
• George Strait, Here For a Good Time – Kevin, Ben
• Taylor Swift, Speak Now – Sam

Will Win

• Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party – Dan
• Eric Church, Chief
• Lady Antebellum, Own the Night – Tara
• Blake Shelton, Red River Blue
• George Strait, Here For a Good Time
• Taylor Swift, Speak Now –  Kevin, Jonathan, Ben, Leeann, Sam

Ben: Church, Strait, and Swift have the three best albums, and of those three, Strait’s Here for a Good Time is the most fully realized, but I would expect that Swift’s crossover appeal and high sales numbers will lead voters to gravitate toward Speak Now.

Jonathan: The nomination for Lady Antebellum’s godawful album represents Grammy voting at its laziest. I don’t care how many people bought Own the Night: It’s terrible and, at some point, the over-rewarding of Lady A for their aggressively middlebrow, banal music has to stop. Church’s album would get my vote over Strait’s by just a hair and, even though I would’ve nominated it for Best Pop Album instead, Speak Now is Swift’s strongest set to date, so I won’t complain too loudly when she wins here.

Tara: Chief packs a killer, audacious punch…but I have this sinking feeling that Lady A will pull a repeat in this category. Look – I was (and probably still am) Lady A’s biggest advocate at Country Universe, but I can’t get behind the overblown success of their degenerating music. How will they ever be motivated to live up to the massive potential shown on Lady Antebellum if we keep rewarding them like this? 

Sam: Quality-wise, Speak Now edges out Chief, though I think Chief deserves some recognition for its ambition. Speak Now was a commercial and an artistic triumph, though the only concern is that it was released so long ago that its impact may have faded from the voters’ memories. That might open the door for Lady Antebellum to win, which would be a shame. While I actually kind of liked Own the Night, there are three albums better than it in the category.

Kevin: Strait just keeps getting better lately.  I think he’d win if it wasn’t for category crossover votes for Swift.

Leeann: I wish I cared about this category more this year than I actually do. It’s likely that either Strait or Swift will win the award, but I think Church’s album is the most interesting.

Best Americana Album

Should Win

• Linda Chorney, Emotional Jukebox
• Ry Cooder, Pull Up Some Dust and Sit Down
• Emmylou Harris, Hard Bargain – Jonathan
• Levon Helm, Ramble at the Ryman
• Lucinda Williams, Blessed

Will Win

• Linda Chorney, Emotional Jukebox
• Ry Cooder, Pull Up Some Dust and Sit Down
• Emmylou Harris, Hard Bargain
• Levon Helm, Ramble at the Ryman – Dan
• Lucinda Williams, Blessed  – Jonathan, Ben, Sam

Jonathan: Of the four veterans nominated, only Harris’ album is anywhere close to her best work, but that rarely matters much. The vitriol directed at Chorney and her exploiting of NARAS’s new social networking initiatives to garner her nomination has reflected very, very poorly on a whole lot of Americana fans and has perpetuated an ugly “us-versus-them” attitude, but there’s no dressing up how poor Chorney’s album actually is, either. But she’s also the only one of the five nominees that anyone has been talking about during the entirety of the voting period… I give the edge to Williams on sales stats alone, but there’s really no frontrunner here.

Sam: Should win: Hayes Carll, KMAG YOYO and other American Stories (yeah, I know it wasn’t nominated). I actually kind of hope that Linda Chorney wins. For one thing, the outcry would be phenomenal. For another, it might shed some light on just how the voting is done, and is there a better way to do it. Do the voters know what Americana music is? Did they listen to any of the albums? I have nothing against any of the nominees, but Hayes Carll released one of the best albums of the year and had no chance in competing against legends like Emmylou, Ry Cooder and Levon Helm. Of the four legitimate nominees, Williams has gone the longest between Grammy wins, so maybe it’s her turn.

Dan: Levon has won for his last two albums. This one is a live set, so Lucinda could definitely unseat him, but still.

Best Bluegrass Album

Should Win

• Alison Krauss and Union Station, Paper Airplane
• Jim Lauderdale, Reason and Rhyme
• Steve Martin and the Steep Canyon Rangers, Rare Bird Alert – Sam
• The Del McCoury Band, Old Memories: The Songs of Bill Monroe
• Ralph Stanley, A Mother’s Prayer
• Chris Thile and Michael Staves, Sleep With One Eye Open – Jonathan

Will Win

• Alison Krauss and Union Station, Paper Airplane – Jonathan, Dan, Ben, Tara, Sam
• Jim Lauderdale, Reason and Rhyme
• Steve Martin and the Steep Canyon Rangers, Rare Bird Alert
• The Del McCoury Band, Old Memories: The Songs of Bill Monroe
• Ralph Stanley, A Mother’s Prayer
• Chris Thile and Michael Staves, Sleep With One Eye Open

Ben: I have no rationale for who should win, but I think we all know who will.

Jonathan: I can’t think of anything more foolhardy than betting against Alison Krauss at the Grammys.

Tara: What Ben said.

Sam: Honestly, I thought Krauss’ Paper Airplane was kind of tepid, while Rare Bird Alert was charming and energetic. Still, Krauss is the Jimmy Sturr of the Grammy bluegrass categories (all the polka fans should get that reference), so unless the voters decide to give Martin a lifetime achievement award of sorts, she’s got this one in the bag.

Dan: Steve Martin’s got a chance, but…

Best Folk Album

Should Win

• The Civil Wars, Barton Hollow – Leeann
• Steve Earle, I’ll Never Get Out of This World Alive – Jonathan, Sam
• Fleet Foxes, Hopelessness Blues
• Eddie Vedder, Ukelele Songs
• Gillian Welch, The Harrow & The Harvest

Will Win

• The Civil Wars, Barton Hollow – Jonathan, Ben
• Steve Earle, I’ll Never Get Out of This World Alive – Dan
• Fleet Foxes, Hopelessness Blues
• Eddie Vedder, Ukelele Songs – Leeann, Sam
• Gillian Welch, The Harrow & The Harvest

Ben: If my prediction of an Aldean-Clarkson victory for Duo/Group Performance comes true, I would expect that this is where voters will recognize The Civil Wars.

Jonathan: If NARAS were really committed to the idea of reducing the number of categories, they’d merge the Americana and Folk Album categories with Best Country Album and, considering how fast and loose they’re already playing with genre tags, they probably should do just that and let the chips fall where they may. Welch’s album is the only one of the five that really scans as “folk” music in any traditional sense, so who wins here will depend on whether or not voters are looking for something more traditional or contemporary. I’m guessing it’s the latter case, to the benefit of the Civil Wars.

Sam: Steve Earle released his best album in years with I’ll Never Get Out of This World Alive. The love songs were tender, the topical songs were sharp and insightful, and there weren’t any love songs about Condoleezza Rice. Eddie Vedder, on the other hand, is in Pearl Jam, so clearly he’s the odds-on favorite. Actually, Ukelele Songs got some pretty good reviews, and if Vedder’s vocals didn’t remind me so much of Bob Dylan’s current voice crossed with an injured goat, I might be more inclined to like it.

Dan: I can imagine a Fleet Foxes or Civil Wars win, but in the end, I’m still guessing Earle, the proven Grammy favorite.

Leeann: It’s sad that I care about this category far more than the Country Album category this year. I love The Civil Wars album the most, but the Welch, Vedder and Earl albums are great too. I’ll be happy to see any of them win, but I have a strange feeling that Vedder will take it.